To be clear from the outset, Australia are still the best side in the world going into the tournament in the UAE. Their depth and quality is unparalleled and, of all the sides, they are the most likely to lift the trophy in Dubai on October 20. It says a lot about how good Australia have been over the past eight years that this is the side that looks to be the most beatable.

Eighteen months ago in South Africa, Australia won their 13th trophy at an ICC tournament. As ever, they cruised through the group stages, beating New Zealand by 97 runs, Bangladesh by eight wickets, Sri Lanka by 10 wickets and then South Africa by six. The spin trio of Ash Gardner, Georgia Wareham and Alana King held a vice-like grip, alongside Megan Schutt and Ellyse Perry who were backed up by then 20-year-old Darcie Brown as the tearaway quick. That’s before you got to the fearsome batting lineup, Alyssa Healy, Beth Mooney, Perry and the rest all in form, and all-rounders throughout the order.

Nevertheless, when they got to the semi-final, there was a stutter. India got within five runs of knocking them out before the final for the first time in the tournament’s history. To win that match, Australia couldn’t outpace India with far superior skills with bat or ball. But, they were able to fall back on what’s helped them extend their dominance for so long. They know how to win.

India were ahead in the chase when Harmanpreet Kaur’s bat got stuck in the ground leading to her run out. From there, the muscle memory all the Australia players have of high-pressure situations kicked in. They were excellent in the field, Perry enacting a remarkable save on the boundary to ensure the 19th over went for just four runs.

While the final wasn’t as finely cut, it was the closest T20 World Cup final Australia had been involved in for over a decade. Australia still lifted the trophy, but it was clear they no longer held the kind of lead over the chasing pack which defined the late 2010s.

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🚨 Presenting Wisden's Team of the 2023 Women's T20 World Cup 🚨#T20WorldCup pic.twitter.com/IukcJyXIb5

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) February 27, 2023

Since then, that pattern has continued. Australia lost the Ashes T20I series to England in their first assignment since the T20 World Cup. They also lost the following ODI series, just clinging on to the Ashes with a points draw in the multi format series. They’ve also lost games to the West Indies at home, as well as India and South Africa in both white-ball formats. Compare that to their record before the 2023 World Cup in which Australia lost three matches across white-ball formats in the preceding two years, and there's a significant difference.

It’s hard to pinpoint a reason for that, aside from that the likes of India, England and South Africa are simply catching up. The WPL will enter its third season next year, The Hundred has finished its fourth and the WCPL is also off the ground. They’ve all been significant steps in raising the standard, increasing the amount of professional cricket played.

Significantly as well, Australia have had some key changes in personnel. Meg Lanning stepped down from the Australia captaincy and subsequently retired from international cricket in 2023. Lanning was a constant for the side throughout their most dominant era, captaining for nine years - her part in creating that can hardly be overstated. The quiet ruthlessness, effortless authority and grittiness to deliver key innings at crucial times were reflected in the side she created.

Alyssa Healy, taking on the captaincy firstly in the Ashes series, is different. That’s no bad thing and there should be no doubting the astuteness and leadership Healy brings, but it is a different side under her. Where Lanning brought cool steel, Healy brings Aussie confidence and brashness, unapologetically leading the best side in the world from the legacy she’s been left.

Aside from the personnel changes, of which Jess Jonassen is another notable omission from Australia’s squad this time around, there are a few other key differences. Grace Harris was in the form of her life leading into 2023. In the 12 months leading up to the T20 World Cup, she averaged 59.66 in T20Is and was striking at 186.45, batting in Australia’s top six. While she had a notable outing as opener in Australia’s series against Bangladesh, scoring 47 off 34 balls, she will most likely fit into the side at No.7 if she gets into the XI, and hasn’t replicated her form of 2022 for the last 18 months.

Australia still boast explosive potential in the middle order with Georgia Wareham, Ash Gardner and Tahlia McGrath. However, it doesn’t have that axis of steel the 2023 side had with Lanning and Perry. Perry also provides a dilemma. After a burst of T20I runs from 2022-2023, her returns and strike rate have significantly dropped this year, in which she has a high score of 37 from 12 innings. Her ability to turn that around for the World Cup shouldn’t be in doubt, but it has pressured those around her to hit out in the lower order, particularly Annabel Sutherland, who’s been unable to break into the top six.

Australia also have the toughest group of the competition, pitted alongside India, New Zealand, Pakistan, and dark horses Sri Lanka. A slip up will most likely see them face England in the semi-final. Both India and England are at different stages in their development than they were in 2023, and both have beaten Australia at least once since that tournament.

Having said all of the above, a fourth consecutive Australia title is the most likely outcome of the next three weeks. That muscle-memory, confidence, and ability all make them not only the best team in the world, but the best team at winning World Cups. But, their place at the top of that pile looks the most shakable it has been for eight years.

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