India's chances of qualifying for the Women's T20 World Cup semi-finals received a boost after New Zealand were thrashed by Australia on Tuesday night(October 8). But what do they need in order to finish in the top two in Group A?
In the tenth match of the tournament in Sharjah, Australia posted 148-8 before their bowlers triggered New Zealand to slide from 54-1 to 88 all out, securing a 60-run win in the process.
From India's point of view, this result has given a boost to their chances of qualifying for the semi-finals despite their massive 58-run loss to New Zealand in their opening game. Australia now sit on top of the table with two wins in two matches as well as a healthy net run rate of +2.524.
But while India's chances have improved somewhat, the situation remains challenging for them. After two games each in the group stage, they have the same number of points as Pakistan and New Zealand, but the worst net run rate of the three teams by far.
Net run rate scenarios: What do India need to do to qualify?
With five matches remaining, there are a total of 32 result sets possible (not taking into account any no-results). In seven of these, India will be guaranteed a top-two finish. In 13 cases, they will be eliminated at the group stage and in 12 cases, they will be level on points with one or more other teams, meaning qualification will depend on their net run rate.
In short, it is highly likely that in order to qualify, India need to beat one or two other teams on net run rate. These teams are also likely to be Pakistan and/or New Zealand.
Following the New Zealand loss, India failed to make much headway on fixing their net run rate during their following game against Pakistan as they chased down 106 with just eight balls to spare.
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As a result, they are now in the unenviable situation of having to defeat Sri Lanka by a significant margin, or defeating Australia. At this point in time, New Zealand's net run rate is easier for them to overhaul, but this could change depending on how future games pan out.
For the immediate future, India need to focus on beating Sri Lanka, and doing so in convincing fashion. They can go past New Zealand's current net run rate by batting first and winning by a margin of at least 44-46 runs (dependent on their score), or by batting second and chasing down Sri Lanka's total with at least roughly 15-19 balls to spare (again, dependent on the target).
It is not strictly necessary for India to overtake New Zealand's net run rate after the Sri Lanka game, but it would be wise to aim for that given Australia are unlikely to be beaten by a huge margin, if at all.
Looking forward, past the Australia game, India can bring their net run rate to a positive number if they manage to outscore their opponents by 49 runs or more in both matches combined. If they beat both Sri Lanka and Australia, will almost certainly not be an issue. But this also means that if, for example, they beat Sri Lanka by 70 runs, they can afford to lose to Australia by approximately 20 runs and still keep a positive NRR.
This margin of 49 runs combined across both matches is roughly equivalent to India scoring the same number of runs as their opponents, but in 45-50 balls fewer (depending on the exact scores).
Can India qualify for the semi-finals without depending on net run rate?
Yes. As mentioned above, there are seven result possibilities that will see India finish in the top two irrespective of net run rate. But in order for this to happen they must win their two remaining fixtures, against Sri Lanka and Australia. This is non-negotiable.
The winners of the remaining three fixtures in the group (AUS v PAK, NZ v SL, NZ v PAK) will then need to combine in a few specific ways for India to finish in the top two, namely the following possibilities:
- AUS, NZ, PAK
- AUS, SL, NZ
- PAK, NZ, NZ
- PAK, SL, PAK
- PAK, NZ, PAK
- PAK, SL, NZ
- AUS, SL, PAK
Once again, these sets of outcomes will send India through if and only if they beat Sri Lanka and Australia (irrespective of the margin).
There is one set of results which sees India dependent on net run rate even after winning their two remaining games – Australia beating Pakistan and New Zealand winning both their remaining matches would see these three tied on three wins each. India will hope it does not come down to this.
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