Explained: Why England almost certainly need to win v West Indies, despite superior net run rate

Three wins from three. Scotland seen off with half the overs to spare. England top of the group on both points and net run rate. Job done, you’d think.

As it turns out, not quite. England have one game left, against West Indies, and in fact almost any margin of defeat in that game will see them crash out of the tournament at the group stage, despite their perfect start. (It’s worth stating the obvious here that if England win, they will go through on eight points as group winners, with South Africa in second place. It’s also worth stating that for the purposes of any below calculations, we’re assuming it’s a full 20-over game with no DLS shenanigans at play, because that would be too complicated, and also, it’s the UAE.)

Still, this is the weirdness of net run rate, a tiebreaker where even a small defeat can lead to a big swing, and not all one-run defeats are equivalent: the actual totals at play matter too.

While England’s net run rate is currently better than West Indies, that is only the case by a small margin, so almost any defeat will see their net run rate fall below the Caribbean side. And while both have a net run rate that is currently superior to South Africa’s, unless the game is incredibly high-scoring, at least one of England or West Indies will end up with a net run rate below the Proteas.

What margin of defeat would see England stay ahead of West Indies?

The key number here is 134. If West Indies make 134 or fewer, that gives England one-run’s worth of leeway. That is to say, if they make 133, they will lose but keep their net run rate above West Indies. If West Indies make 97 or fewer, England will have two runs of leeway. If West Indies make between 135 and 172 inclusive, then England need to match their total, but could afford to tie and lose in a super over, with super overs not counting for net run rate purposes. As an aside, it would be incredibly cricket for the two teams to tie and play a super over, even though, by virtue of tying, England would be guaranteed to progress whether they win or lose. As a secondary aside, if West Indies do make 172 and England match it, their net run rate would be better than West Indies’ by 0.000013. The barest of margins.

If West Indies chase, the numbers are similar, but it’s complicated by what happens if they win with a boundary and overshoot the target. Let’s deal with what happens if they score one more run than England first. In that case, if England make 95 or fewer, West Indies must chase it with two balls or more to spare. If England make between 96 and 133, West Indies must chase it with one ball to spare. If England make between 134 and 172, any sort of chase will do for West Indies. If England make 173 or more, West Indies will progress even if they tie the game and win in a super over.

If West Indies score two more runs than England, then if England score 97 or more, West Indies will progress no matter how quickly they chase the runs.

What about South Africa?

It is theoretically possible for England to lose and for both their and West Indies’ net run rate to stay above the Proteas. Using the word loosely, the most ‘likely’ way for this to happen is for both England and West Indies to make 194 and for West Indies to win in a super over. Then England and West Indies would have net run rates of 1.383 and 1.399 respectively.

Could you simplify that a bit?

If it’s a low-scoring game, England might have one run or one ball of leeway, depending on if they are chasing or setting. If it’s medium-scoring, they can afford to tie and lose a super over. If it’s high-scoring, they need to win. If it’s really high-scoring, strangely, they can afford to tie and lose a super over again, but it would be at South Africa’s expense, not West Indies’. Got it?