India will take on Australia in a crunch Women's T20 World Cup fixture on Sunday (October 13). With semi-final qualification on the line, here's what they need to seal a spot in the final four.
India lost their opening match of the T20 World Cup to New Zealand by 58 runs, before beating Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the latter by a massive 82 runs. With two wins in three matches, they are currently level on points with New Zealand, who will face off against Pakistan tomorrow. Sri Lanka have lost all four of their group matches.
| Team | Matches | Wins | Losses | Points | Net run rate |
| Australia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | +2.786 |
| India | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +0.576 |
| New Zealand | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +0.282 |
| Pakistan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -0.488 |
| Sri Lanka | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2.173 |
Will India qualify for the Women's T20 World Cup semi-final as long as they beat Australia?
In order to qualify for the semi-finals, India will have to finish in the top two of Group A. If they lose to Australia, they could still make it, but would be dependent on Pakistan defeating New Zealand tomorrow (by a specific margin that keeps both Pakistan's and New Zealand's net run rate below India's).
India can be knocked out even if they beat Australia, though.
If they win, and New Zealand beat Pakistan tomorrow, all three of these sides will be level on six points, meaning qualification will depend on net run rate. India's net run rate is currently higher than New Zealand's, but if the White Ferns defeat Pakistan by a large enough margin, they can overtake this.
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The exact margins are dependent on the first-innings totals, but if New Zealand beat Pakistan by roughly 17-20 runs more than India's victory margin over Australia, they will move ahead of India on net run rate. This margin is approximately equivalent to three overs, when considering a win while chasing.
Essentially, if India beat Australia by 10 runs, they will be knocked out if New Zealand beat Pakistan by roughly 27-30 runs. If India chase down Australia's score with one over to spare, they will be knocked out if New Zealand chase down Pakistan's score with 3-4 overs to spare.
Can India qualify independent of other results?
The result of the New Zealand-Pakistan game, of course, is not in India's hands. Therefore, in order to secure qualification, they must defeat Australia by a large enough margin to overtake their opponents on net run rate. That way, a New Zealand win by any margin will ensure India finish at least second in the group.
So, how can they achieve this?
If India bat first, they need to record a victory margin of roughly 60 runs in order to overtake Australia's net run rate. There is very little wiggle room on this as well – they need to win by 56 runs even if they score just 100. The following table serves as a guide for the result margins required for India if they bat first.
| If India score... | ...they need to win by |
| 100 | 56 runs |
| 110 | 57 runs |
| 120 | 58 runs |
| 130 | 59 runs |
| 140 | 60 runs |
| 150 | 61 runs |
| 160 | 62 runs |
| 170 | 63 runs |
| 180 | 63 runs |
| 190 | 64 runs |
| 200 | 64 runs |
Most of these scenarios appear highly unlikely against an Australian side which has looked imperious for a far longer time than just this tournament. Would the situation be any better if India were to chase?
Well...no. In fact, it might be more difficult for India to secure qualification while chasing.
| If Australia score... | ...India need to chase in |
| 100 | 10 overs |
| 110 | 10.1 overs |
| 120 | 10.1 overs |
| 130 | 10.1 overs |
| 140 | 10.2 overs |
| 150 | 10.2 overs |
| 160 | 10.2 overs |
| 170 | 10.2 overs |
| 180 | 10.3 overs |
| 190 | 10.3 overs |
| 200 | 10.3 overs |
These margins have been calculated assuming India score exactly one run more than Australia. Of course, they can score more by hitting a six when the scores are level. That does give them a leeway of about an over, meaning, for example, they can either score 101 in 10 overs, or 106 in 11 overs. But there is little difference between the two cases, in terms of the difficulty of the task.
In short, India's chances of ensuring qualification with this result are bleak. It is a hard enough task to defeat this Australian lineup, let alone by the kind of margins required here. They would be best served by attempting to secure a win first, and worry about boosting the net run rate once that is relatively safe.
In all likelihood, whatever the result, their qualification will be decided by the outcome of New Zealand v Pakistan tomorrow.
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