Defeat to Australia has left India needing a favour from Pakistan against New Zealand to qualify for the Women’s T20 World Cup semi-finals, but Pakistan’s hopes aren’t entirely extinguished either.
India sit second in Group A, for now, with two wins from four and a better net run rate than the White Ferns. Any sort of victory for New Zealand, however, will see them qualify with three wins, more than India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Any sort of defeat will be fatal for the Kiwis however. Even if they tie and then lose in a super over, their net run rate will remain below India’s.
Pakistan, meanwhile, need to win and win well to overtake India’s net run rate. If they bat first, they need to win by between 47 and 60 runs, depending on their total. The higher their total, the greater the margin of victory needed to ensure qualification.
If chasing, they will need to reach the target with 57 or 56 balls to spare, again depending on the total. Should they finish the game with a boundary, overshooting New Zealand’s total, they can take a few extra deliveries to chase the total.
So India need to hope Pakistan win, but not too well. Pakistan need to win well. And New Zealand need to win. Australia are already through as group winners.
The semi-finalists from the second group will be two of England, South Africa and West Indies, with South Africa all but certain of qualification, and the England-West Indies clash a virtual quarter-final, give or take a run or a ball or two.
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