Defeat to Australia has left India needing a favour from Pakistan against New Zealand to qualify for the Women’s T20 World Cup semi-finals, but Pakistan’s hopes aren’t entirely extinguished either after they limited the White Ferns to 110 in Dubai.
India sit second in Group A, for now, with two wins from four and a better net run rate than the White Ferns. Any sort of victory for New Zealand, however, will see them qualify with three wins, more than India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Any sort of defeat will be fatal for the Kiwis however. Even if they tie and then lose in a super over, their net run rate will remain below India’s.
Pakistan, meanwhile, need to win and win well to overtake India’s net run rate. New Zealand batted first in Dubai and scored 110-6, capitalising on several simple catches going down in the field. They will need to chase the exact total within 10.4 overs in order to leapfrog India and New Zealand's NRR and qualify for the semi-final.
However, if they overshoot the total, for example by hitting a four with one run required to win, they will have one ball extra to chase the total per run they overshoot by. Taking the four with one run required scenario, finishing the match on 113 would mean Pakistan could chase the total off 11.1 overs and still boost their NRR enough overtake India and New Zealand.
In summary, India need to hope Pakistan win, but not too well. Pakistan need to win well. And New Zealand just need to win. Australia are already through as group winners.
The semi-finalists from the second group will be two of England, South Africa and West Indies, with South Africa all but certain of qualification, and the England-West Indies clash a virtual quarter-final, give or take a run or a ball or two.
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