India's Women's T20 World Cup hopes have been significantly dented after a heavy defeat to New Zealand in their tournament opener. They now require a significant swing in order to make the semi-finals.
From ball one, India were disappointing against New Zealand. Pooja Vastrakar couldn't get her lengths right in the first over, meaning the White Ferns got a fast start, and the fielding was sub-par in the early part of the innings. They missed the cut off for starting the 20th over and had to have an extra fielder inside the circle, which Shreyanka Patil then conceded 11 off. New Zealand scored 160, their highest score in their last 18 T20Is, on a pitch on which that felt above par.
India's hope for the second innings was to take advantage of the dew which comes into effect late in the day in the UAE. However, they lost Shafali Verma in the second over, misreading a ball from Eden Carson, who also removed Smriti Mandhana in the powerplay, holing out to long-on. Harmanpreet Kaur was then trapped lbw playing across the line for a 14-ball 15, at which point India were already falling well behind the run rate. The wicket of Jemimah Rodrigues, attempting to break the pressure with a big shot but hitting straight to mid on, effectively ended India's hopes in the chase less than halfway through.
New Zealand have lost 16 out of their 19 T20Is in the last 12 months, and were not rated with a high chance of reaching the knockout stages ahead of the tournament. After India reached the semi-final last time out in 2023, and almost beat Australia to qualify for the final, there were high hopes they would go at least one better this time around. Now they almost certainly have to rely on the results of others to make it out of their group.
What do India need to qualify for the semi-finals?
With everyone in Group A but Australia having now started their campaign, India sit bottom of the group. They have zero points alongside Sri Lanka and Australia, but have a worse NRR (-2.9) after one game than Sri Lanka (-1.55), who lost to Pakistan by 31 runs. India will play Pakistan next on Sunday, Sri Lanka the following Wednesday, ahead of their final group game against Australia. Out of those games, the one India are most expected to lose is to Australia.
Assuming they do lose to Australia, the maximum number of points they will be able to reach is four, by beating both Pakistan and Sri Lanka. All teams in Group A can still equal or beat that number, but New Zealand and Australia are the most likely to. Taking Australia out of the equation, as they are expected to win all of their group games, New Zealand could still lose to Australia and get to six points, by beating Pakistan and Sri Lanka. In that scenario, if India do lose to Australia, they will be knocked out on points.
India therefore must rely on one of Pakistan or Sri Lanka beating New Zealand. While this is not impossible, or even massively unlikely, the side which does it will also have to beat New Zealand fairly well given that New Zealand now have a favourable NRR. On what we have seen so far from the conditions, big wins look like they will be hard to come by without teams combusting, as India did against New Zealand. The tournament looks like it will be a low-scoring one, especially in the games played in Sharjah.
Pakistan are also in a position to almost effectively knock India out on Sunday, having beaten Sri Lanka yesterday (October 3). If Pakistan beat India, it would put them on four points, the most India could reach even if they beat Australia. They would have to beat both Sri Lanka and Australia to even be in with a chance of finishing second in the group. Even then, their NRR could count against them.
Of course, if India go on to win all three of their remaining group games, including the one against Australia, they will finish with six points. That would obviously give them the best chance of qualifying for the semi-finals, but wouldn't guarantee progression. As said previously, New Zealand could lose to Australia and still go on to finish on six points.
So: Even if India win all their games, net run rate could still be a factor. And if they win just two games, net run rate will have to come into play if they are to progress. And their net run rate has already taken a pounding. It doesn't look good.
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