During the latter stages of Pakistan’s chase against Canada, there were frequent references on commentary to Babar Azam’s side's net run rate, with their lack of urgency criticised.
They eventually reached their 107-run target with 15 balls to spare, well short of the 13.5 overs they needed to complete their chase within to overtake USA on the day.
However, net run rate is highly unlikely to be what knocks Pakistan out of the T20 World Cup, with only a small swing across three results needed to see them make the next round.
To recap, a quick summary of Pakistan’s predicament: After defeats to USA and India, they need one of those two sides to lose both their games, and to win their final game against Ireland, to draw level on four points.
Assuming, as seems fair, that it is USA, with two Full Member sides left to play, that lose those two games, Pakistan fans might be worried about the net run rate swing needed. USA’s net run rate is 0.626, while Pakistan’s is 0.191. Can they make up nearly half a run per over across three games?
In short, yes, and they should do so comfortably. Because net run rate is an average, even a small USA defeat will bring down their net run rate significantly, and while it is possible for Pakistan to win and for their NRR to go down, they only need small margins across the three results that must go their way to be assured of progression.
Pakistan had a tie and a six-run defeat, and if they are to go through, USA will have to lose twice, net run rate is not going to be an issue
— Ben Gardner (@Ben_Wisden) June 11, 2024
While it is hard to give an exact margin across the three games that will be needed, with different equations depending on different totals and depending on if a team bats first or chases, some examples illustrate the point.
Say USA fail to chase 150 by just one run in both of their games, Pakistan would only need to defend the same total by seven runs to overtake their net run rate. On the other hand, should USA fail to defend 150 twice, with a combined half an over to spare across both games, Pakistan would themselves need to chase 150 with half an over to spare to ease through.
You can see why when looking through the side's results so far. Pakistan have completed a chase within 17.3 overs, lost in a Super Over (the game is considered a tie for net run rate purposes) and lost by six runs. USA have completed a chase within 17.4 overs and won a super over. One narrow defeat would give the two sides near-identical result margins, and therefore, as you'd expect, similar net run rates. USA chasing a bigger target against Canada than Pakistan did helps their cause, but only slightly.
Still, that is the merest sliver of good news for Pakistan. For one, it assumes results going their way, which, given USA’s good form and Ireland’s struggles, is far from guaranteed. For another, the rain looks set to play spoilsport. After USA play India to close out the New York leg, the caravan moves on to Florida, where a flash-flood warning is in place due to tropical storms. Should either USA’s final game or Pakistan’s final game be washed out, USA will be through to the Super Eights. Pakistan fans should put away their calculators and get out their super soppers.
