India can lose to Australia in their final Super Eights game of the 2024 T20 World Cup and still qualify for the semi-finals. Here is what they need.
Four matches into the Super Eights stage, India are at the top of the group, followed by Australia, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh in that order. All four teams can qualify for the semi-finals.
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Points | Net run rate |
| India | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +2.425 |
| Australia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +0.223 |
| Afghanistan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -0.650 |
| Bangladesh | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2.489 |
Matches left in Super Eights Group 1
June 23, 10.30 AM (local): Australia v India, Gros Islet
June 23, 8.30 PM (local): Afghanistan v Bangladesh, Kingstown
What do India need to qualify for the semi-final?
A win against Australia will guarantee them a place in the semi-final as the top team from Group 1. They can, however, qualify even after losing their final Super Eights clash against Australia. All they need to ensure is that their net run rate (+2.425) does not drop below Australia's (+0.223) or Afghanistan's (-0.650).
If India's NRR does drop below Australia's following a defeat, they will then have to hope that Afghanistan either lose to Bangladesh or don't win by a big enough margin to overtake India's NRR.
And in case India suffers a defeat of such epic proportions that their NRR drops below Afghanistan's, they will have to hope that Bangladesh beat Afghanistan in the final Super Eights fixture, or that it is washed out.
If India's match against Australia is washed out, they will qualify for the semi-final on points.
What margin of defeat can India afford against Australia to qualify for the semi-final?
If India make 140 batting first, Australia need to chase the target inside 14.5 overs to go overtake India on NRR. The number changes – but only marginally – depending on how many India score (for 160, Australia have 15 overs; for 200, they have 15.3; for 120, it is 14.3; in other words, the fewer India score, the easier it is for Australia).
If Australia bat first, India need to keep the margin of defeat less than or equal to 40 runs to make sure that their net run rate stays above Australia's. The margin does not change irrespective of how much they score (as long as it is a 20-over contest), though a rain-curtailed match will alter things significantly.
The bottomline for India to ensure qualification even after a defeat against Australia is: don't lose by more than 40 runs if chasing, or don't let Australia chase inside 15 overs (if they make 160 batting first).
What are the other subplots in play?
Australia will not be eliminated after the match even if they lose, but they will have to back Bangladesh to beat Afghanistan but not by a margin big enough to leapfrog Australia. If however, Australia lose by 41 runs or more against India, their NRR will drop below Afghanistan's, in which case, a victory over Bangladesh will take Afghanistsan through to the semi-final.
A win against India will help Australia stay in the hunt, but they will have to keep an eye on Afghanistan versus Bangladesh. Afghanistan play last, and will have a chance to go past Australia if they win and surpass Australia on net run rate.
However, if Australia go past India during the match, they will automatically qualify irrespective of the Afghanistan-Bangladesh outcome. If Afghanistan go past Australia then, India will be eliminated.
Follow Wisden for all T20 World Cup updates, including live scores, match stats, quizzes and more. Stay up to date with the latest cricket news, player updates, team standings, match highlights and video analysis.
