England’s defeat to South Africa has put a dent in their T20 World Cup hopes, but they still have a good chance of making the semi-finals. Here’s what they need for that to happen.
After stumbling through the group stage, England hit their stride with a thumping victory over West Indies in their opening Super Eights encounter. They looked on course to make it two from two against South Africa, but a spin stranglehold left their finishers too much to do, and they succumbed by seven runs.
Will it be down to net run rate again?
The result leaves England on two points from two games, and possibly dependent on net run rate again. The most likely set of results that would see a tie for second place is if West Indies and England beat USA, and West Indies beat South Africa. That would see West Indies, England and West Indies tied on two points each.
Should England and West Indies beat USA but South Africa beat West Indies, England will take second place on points.
If USA spring a shock against West Indies, England won’t be dependent on net run rate. Victory over USA would see them through to the semis, with neither USA or West Indies able to reach two wins, while defeat would mean England had just one win, while the USA and South Africa were on at least two each.
South Africa clinches a thriller in St Lucia, handing
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) June 21, 2024
England their first loss in the Super Eights.
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If West Indies beat USA and USA beat England, then England would need South Africa to beat West Indies and hope net run rate works in their favour in a three-way tie on one win each. England’s net run rate is firmly in the positive with victory over West Indies comprehensive and defeat to South Africa narrow, and they will feel confident of boosting it further against USA, an Associate side, after crushing victories over Namibia and Oman in the first round. However, the South Africa-West Indies fixture comes after the England-USA game, meaning that the two sides will know exactly what they need to do to overtake the 2022 champions. If England only beat USA narrowly, then it’s possible that a certain victory margin for West Indies over South Africa sends both the hosts and the Proteas through, and England out.
For South Africa, victory doesn’t quite guarantee their semi-final place. If West Indies beat USA overnight, then a three-way tie on two points each will still be possible. However, if USA beat West Indies, then South Africa will be through.
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