India beat Australia by 24 runs in their final Super Eights game in St Lucia, qualifying for the semi-finals in the process. The result has also opened up Group 1, with the Afghanistan-Bangladesh match in St Vincent becoming the decider for the second semi-finalist spot from the group.
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Points | Net run rate |
| India | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | +2.017 |
| Australia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -0.331 |
| Afghanistan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -0.650 |
| Bangladesh | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2.489 |
Matches left in Super Eights Group 1
June 23, 8.30 PM (local): Afghanistan v Bangladesh, Kingstown
What do Afghanistan need to qualify for the semi-finals?
Given Australia managed to reduce their margin of defeat against India down to 24 and keep their net run rate (-0.331) above Afghanistan's (-0.650) in the process, the equation has become slightly tougher for Afghanistan than it would have been had Australia lost by a bigger margin.
India have defeated Australia to secure their place in the semi-finals of the 2024 T20 World Cup 👏
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) June 24, 2024
They will face England in Guyana on June 27 (Thursday).
Scorecard here: https://t.co/iqlCgrab39 pic.twitter.com/yerxboiQt3
A win against Bangladesh will see Afghanistan through to the semi-final on points as they will end up with four points. A washout, which is also a possiblity given the rain forecast during match hours, will also see Afghanistan through as they'll end up on three points in that case, one more than Australia's two.
A defeat, on the other hand, will knock Afghanistan out. Even in the case of the tie followed by a defeat in the super over, Afghanistan's net run rate will only rise to -0.433, not enough to go beyond Australia's.
Bottomline: to qualify, avoid defeat.
What do Bangladesh need to qualify for the semi-finals?
Bangladesh's poor net run rate makes the task tougher for them. They need to win by a big margin to leapfrog Australia on net run rate and qualify for the semi-finals. A loss or a washout will see them get knocked out. Here are the victory margins they would need:
Bangladesh bat first
In this case, Bangladesh have to beat Afghanistan by 62 runs or more (irrespective of how much they score). A victory by 61 runs will see them equal Australia's net run rate (-0.331). That won't be enough since in the case of equal net run rates and equal number of victories, the criteria which decides which team goes through is the head-to-head record. Since Australia beat Bangladesh in the Super Eights, they will qualify in case Bangladesh win by 61 runs against Afghanistan.
The required margins of victory will increase if the game is shortened. For a 10-over game, Bangladesh will need to win by 65 runs or more. For a 5-over game, Bangladesh will need to win by 66 runs or more.
Bangladesh bat second
If Bangladesh chase 200, they will need to do it in 13.3 overs (assuming they make exactly 200). They can, however, afford to take 14 overs if they hit a six at 199 to reach 205.
If Bangladesh chase 160, they need to reach the target in 12.5 overs. Again, they can afford to take up to 13.3 overs if they hit a six from 159 to reach 165.
If Bangladesh restrict Afghanistan to 119 and are chasing 120, they'll need to do it within 12.1 overs (12.5 if they reach 125).
The above scenarios were assuming 20-over matches. If overs are reduced, Bangladesh's chances will take a significant hit, becoming practically impossible the shorter the game ends up being.
For example, if they are given a target of 100 in a 10-over game, Bangladesh will have to chase it down in 3 overs, basically hitting every ball for a six.
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