On Sunday, June 9, the 2024 T20 World Cup is set to witness one of the most highly-anticipated matches of the first round as arch-rivals India and Pakistan face off in Group A in New York.
The weather forecast for the match was not promising, with showers predicted on and off during the game. In addition, rain just ahead of the scheduled 10:00am local toss time meant it was delayed by half an hour. The start of play was also pushed by 30 minutes after Pakistan chose to field first, but rain during the intervening period forced another 20-minute delay.
At the time of writing, the match will get underway shortly but there is a possibility that the weather has not had its final say. One match of this tournament, England vs Scotland, has already been washed out and India vs Pakistan could be the second one. In that case, what impact would the result have on each team's chances of qualifying for the Super Eight stage?
What does an India-Pakistan washout mean for Pakistan's chances of qualifying?
Pakistan suffered a shock loss to USA in their opening fixture, with the only saving grace being that their net run rate remains at zero due to the scores being tied to send the match into a Super Over. A washout against India will take them to one point in two games, meaning they can reach a maximum of five points by winning both their remaining games against Ireland and Canada.
However, even that may not be enough for them to finish in the top two and make it to the Super Eights. USA can make it to six points by winning one of their two remaining games, and India can make it to seven by winning both of their remaining matches. In this case, Pakistan will need USA or India to lose both remaining matches, or India to lose one match by a large enough margin for Pakistan to overhaul their net run rate.
In short, in the case of a washout against India, anything less than two wins out of two will send Pakistan out of the competition. But even if they manage to win both games, their fate will not be in their hands.
What does an India-Pakistan washout mean for India's chances of qualifying?
In their first match, India beat Ireland by eight wickets, chasing down 97 in 12.2 overs to give them a big win in terms of net run rate. One point from the Pakistan game with a washout will help them to three points in two games, with matches against USA and Canada to come. It will mean they can reach a maximum of seven points, by winning both those games.
That scenario would see India qualify, irrespective of any other results. If they defeat USA but lose to Canada, they would be knocked out if USA beat Ireland and Pakistan defeat Canada. If those results are reversed, i.e., they lose to USA but beat Canada they could be tied on five points with Pakistan, provided the latter win their last two fixtures. In that case, net run rate would come into the picture. India's is currently +3.065 while Pakistan's is 0.000.
Losing both of their remaining fixtures would see India eliminated from the competition, irrespective of any other results. A washout in this match is not the worst result for them, as their progress will still be in their control.
