England’s washout against Scotland, followed by their defeat against Australia, have left them with a steep uphill task. Scotland, meanwhile, did themselves great favour by defeating Namibia with nine balls to spare and, more significantly, Oman with 41 balls to spare.

Australia have already qualified for the Super Eights, while Namibia and Oman have been eliminated. With three matches left in the group stage, this is where the teams stand.

Matches left in Group B (all timings local):

England v Oman, North Sound, June 14
England v Namibia, North Sound, June 15
Australia v Scotland, Gros Islet, June 16

What do England need to do to pip Scotland?

To begin with, England need to win both their matches and Scotland need to lose theirs. Since England are four points behind Scotland, that is a bare minimum. Even one washout in these three games will eliminate England.

These outcomes, however, are necessary conditions, not sufficient. Once these results pan out the way mentioned above, England will have to outdo Scotland in net run rate.

Let us assume that England bat first in both matches and have a combined victory margin of 80 runs across the two games (let us assume they score 160 in each game and restrict the opposition to 120). That will take their net run rate to +1.050. Now, if Australia get 200, Scotland will need 180 to go past +1.050 and qualify.

If England’s combined margin is 60 runs, Scotland can afford to lose by 40 runs. If England’s combined margin is 40, Scotland can lose by 59. And so on. To sum up, England – this is probably obvious – need to win by margins as big as possible.

What if England chase or Scotland bat first? Every over they have in hand (wickets are irrelevant here) while batting second amounts to about a 10-run margin.

England are not out of this yet, but one thing loads the odds in Scotland’s favour: they play last.

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