The Bumrah cheat code: How India's star player affects more than four overs

Before everything, a bit on the man and the World Cup he had. Craig McDermott (18 wickets at 18.94, economy 4.67) and Imran Khan (17 at 13.05 and 4.45) were the only bowlers to take 15 wickets at the 1987 World Cup, in an era when ODI batting was often a compressed version of Test cricket, few cared about field restrictions, and coaches would reprimand batters for trying funky shots in the nets.

Nearly thirty-seven years later, Bumrah played a World Cup in a format where batters attack and bowlers defend. His 15 wickets against eight teams across two countries came at 8.26 and 4.17. Whichever way you try, however far-fetched your filters are, it is extremely difficult to make these numbers look ordinary.

So intimidating are his numbers that the day is not far away when toddlers with bats in their hands throw bedtime tantrums and parents respond by putting the Bumrah threat to good use.

But enough of cross-era comparison. Let us focus on the World Cup – the largest in the history of the sport – that just got over. Exceptional numbers are obviously a product of great bowling, but… did the batters even try to hit Bumrah?

According to CricViz, among bowlers who bowled 150 balls at the 2024 T20 World Cup, no one was attacked as infrequently as Bumrah. Reduce the cut-off to 100 balls, and only Alzarri Joseph makes the cut.

Attacked least frequently in 2024 T20 World Cup (100 balls)

Player	Balls	Econ	Wickets	Average	% Attack	% Rotate	% Defend	% No shot
Joseph	147	7.22	13	13.61	48.7	37.0	9.7	4.5
Bumrah	178	4.17	15	8.26	50.2	23.4	23.4	2.7
Russell	121	6.99	11	12.81	52.7	34.1	11.6	1.5
Netravalkar	113	6.63	6	20.83	53.9	32.7	13.2	0.0
Rashid	174	6.17	14	12.78	54.1	32.5	12.7	0.5

While batters attacked Bumrah marginally more than Joseph, a few things are worth noticing here. Against Joseph, the batters did rotate the strike and get some runs. With Bumrah, they were happy to see him off: a whopping 26.1 per cent of his deliveries were either defended or left alone.

Defended or left alone most often in 2024 T20 World Cup (100 balls)

Player	Balls	Econ	Wickets	SR	% No attack
Bumrah	178	4.17	15	11.8	26.1
Arshdeep	180	7.16	17	10.5	24.9
Taskin	128	6.42	8	16.0	23.7
Tanzim	144	6.2	11	13.0	23.4
Noor	102	5.76	1	102.0	21.8

Note: Not only does Bumrah top the chart but Arshdeep features at second place. Despite that, both struck at a rate below two overs a wicket. The pace duo was among the biggest reasons for India’s success.

They opposition simply saw off Bumrah’s overs, which contributed to 20 per cent of their innings. Bumrah did not quite make it a 20-overs-versus-16-overs contest, but he did make the battle uneven.

But why did the batters not attack Bumrah? What was the risk?

Best economy against attacking shots in 2024 T20 World Cup (50 balls)

Player	Balls	Econ	Wickets	SR	% Dots	% Boundaries
Bumrah	89	5.25	11	8.0	60.6	10.11
Baartman	83	6.14	6	13.8	56.6	14.45
Nortje	131	7.14	12	10.9	44.2	14.5
Rauf	61	7.27	7	8.7	50.8	18.03
Mustafizur	101	7.48	7	14.4	49.5	18.81

When batters tried to attack Bumrah, they lost wickets more frequently than they did against most others – but you had probably expected that.

Ponder, however, on that economy rate of 5.25. Even when they attacked, the batters could not score even close to a run a ball off Bumrah.

Bumrah, thus, was more economical against aggressive shots than bowlers usually are irrespective of the choice of shot. Let that sink in.

Why would anyone attack a bowler if that stroke does not fetch them runs but gets them out? They would rather attack Bumrah’s teammates… which brings us to the topic of this piece, of how one man determined batting strategies at the World Cup.

Impacting the game outside the quota of four overs

It is important to understand how, throughout the World Cup, Bumrah impacted what happened at the other end. Since he invariably cut down the scoring rate, the opposition took more chances immediately after he was done with an over.

Of the 46 aggressive strokes covered in the above graphic, nine were potential dismissals. One was turned down on DRS; three were dropped catches; and the other five resulted in wickets. A Bumrah over, thus, almost certainly forced batters to change their approach – often to India’s favour.

But Bumrah’s impact is not restricted to what happens immediately after his over, either. Recall the final, where South Africa needed 54 in six overs. Nine runs an over was an achievable target, but Heinrich Klaasen and David Miller were aware that two of the six overs would be Bumrah’s. They decided to bring the asking rate down before that. Thus, when Axar Patel came on, Klaasen gave him the charge and took 24.

it was not the only time teams began their onslaught against India before they did against the other sides. 

In the death overs (17-20), teams played roughly as many aggressive strokes against India as they did against other sides. Of course, they attacked Bumrah less often than his teammates – and that is expected.

What is perhaps not as obvious is the approach in the two overs before that. Bumrah typically bowls two overs out of the last four. Since the opposition is aware of this, they attempted a higher percentage of attacking shots in the two overs preceding that.

Thus, while batters attacked 63 percent of the balls across the 15th and 16th overs against other teams, the count read 66 percent against India. If Bumrah was not bowling either of those two overs, it went up to 70 percent.

Bumrah, thus, forced the opposition to change their tactics. He dictated their attacking patterns over the course of an innings in a format where batters attack and bowlers defend.

That, perhaps, sums up his impact on the game more than anything.

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