As the only Full Member in the event, they were heavy favourites, and Uganda’s victory in particular came with massive odds attached. Given that they beat Australia in an ODI and Pakistan in the T20 World Cup last year, it marks a significant fall.

This outcome relied on several results both in and out of Zimbabwe’s hands going against them, extending back to the first round of the last T20 World Cup. That tournament played a crucial role in determining qualification for the 2024 event. The top four teams in each group qualified automatically, as did the two highest-ranked teams outside of that eight.

Heading into the final day of group stage action, Zimbabwe were well placed to be in that latter category. Only one combination of results – Netherlands beating South Africa, Pakistan beating Bangladesh, and India beating Zimbabwe – would see both Bangladesh and Zimbabwe miss out on the top four in the group, with Bangladesh therefore qualifying for 2024 in place of Zimbabwe, by virtue of their superior ranking.

Netherlands’ victory over South Africa in particular was a sizeable upset. It not only ensured Netherlands would qualify for the 2024 T20 World Cup – a result that aided Ireland and Scotland too – it helped popularise the viral phrase ‘Qudrat Ka Nizam’, translating roughly as ‘Let nature take its course’, among Pakistan fans. The phrase had been used by Pakistan head coach Saqlain Mushtaq a few weeks before the tournament to point out that, sometimes, you have to trust that things will work out.

Pakistan’s progress at the T20 World Cup had looked precarious when they were beaten by Zimbabwe – a game famous for birthing the Pak Bean rivalry – and even more so when they slumped early on against South Africa. But a comeback in that game, and Netherlands’ victory over the Proteas, saw them make the semi-finals, from where they would qualify for the final before being defeated in a close finish.

Celebrations just got started!
T20 World Cup-bound Uganda once again took the famous nursery school rhyme to the global audience.

Ekibobo kili mu nyumba led by coach @OgwangOyuku – Indeed the boys got the big basket in the house.#CricketCranesInColour #Twaake @PlasconUganda pic.twitter.com/V9ySSE4PKs

— Uganda Cricket Association (@CricketUganda) November 30, 2023

That’s not the only turn of events Zimbabwe will be ruing. They were handed an unexpected second chance on the final ball against Bangladesh, when a rare wicketkeeping no ball gave them a free hit with four needed to win, but they couldn’t get the boundary required. Had they won that, and all other results stayed the same, Zimbabwe would have finished in the top four in their group.

And then there’s the fact that Netherlands were in the Super 12s at all. Going into the final day of first round fixtures, Namibia, not Netherlands, were favourites to go through along with Sri Lanka. However, Namibia were upset by UAE, failing to chase down 149 to lose by seven runs. Had they won that, Namibia would have gone through as group winners, though there is no telling how the group stage would have panned out in that case, with Sri Lanka going into Zimbabwe’s group.

Zimbabwe were prevented from qualifying for the 2021 T20 World Cup by an ICC suspension, and now, despite beating one of the finalists at the 2022 event, and the 2024 event being expanded to 20 teams, they will miss their second T20 World Cup out of the last three.