For all the off-field squabbling and debates about their approach, Pakistan have actually been one of the T20 World Cup’s most consistent sides in recent times.
They were beaten semi-finalists in 2021 and made the final in 2022. But their hopes of going one better in 2024 are hanging by a thread after a shock Super Over defeat to hosts USA, and a choke in a low-scoring thriller against India.
With India also beating Ireland and USA beating Canada, Pakistan are in a precarious position. Both USA and India are now on four points. Pakistan, with zero points from two games, can reach a maximum of four points. It means their destiny is firmly out of their hands, and if they do qualify, it will be by virtue of net run rate.
India, led by Bumrah, managed to put the brakes on Pakistan's run-scoring and pull off a record heist.
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) June 9, 2024
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What needs to happen for Pakistan to qualify?
However, it’s not impossible that Pakistan could still qualify for the Super Eights, although plenty needs to go their way. First, they need one of India or USA to lose both their remaining games. Given the two sides are yet to play each other, as long as that game isn’t washed out, that is one defeat taken care of. Assuming that India beat USA, Pakistan’s fate will rest on USA also losing to Ireland. Though Paul Stirling’s side have lost both their games so far, including a shock defeat to Canada, they won’t be significant underdogs against USA - it’s not implausible that, despite their stunning start, the Americans don’t pick up another point.
In that case, it would come down to net run rate, and here again all is not lost to Pakistan. Though it will be scant consolation right now, they have managed to limit the margin of their two defeats. Scores in a Super Over don’t count towards net run rate, meaning they left USA game with an NRR of exactly 0, and a six-run defeat to India means they have a net run rate of -0.150. For comparison England, who will also need a net run rate swing to go through, are languishing on -1.800. If Pakistan win both games, and USA lose both theirs, it is likely that Pakistan’s NRR will prevail.
Do Pakistan need India's help?
There is another similarity to England, however. Pakistan also need their main rivals, in this case India, to do them a favour. And the decisive game will come after Pakistan’s group stage schedule is complete.
A possible scenario is that a small India win would send both them and USA through, and if India beat Canada, they will already be through to the Super Eights by that point. Pakistan’s chances rest on Ireland, India, and themselves. Right now, do Pakistan fans trust any of them?
