With Group D of the T20 World Cup just over halfway through its matches, all five teams are still mathematically in with a chance of qualifying for the Super Eight stage of the tournament.
After six out of ten matches in the group, South Africa have secured qualification already meaning the other four will have to fight it out for the second available spot. The current standings are as follows.
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | No Result | Points | Net Run Rate |
| South Africa (Q) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +0.603 |
| Bangladesh | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +0.075 |
| Netherlands | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +0.024 |
| Nepal | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -0.539 |
| Sri Lanka | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -0.777 |
Matches left in Group D:
Bangladesh vs Netherlands, Kingstown, June 13
Nepal vs South Africa, Kingstown, June 14
Bangladesh vs Nepal, Kingstown, June 16
Netherlands vs Sri Lanka, Gros Islet, June 16
Also read: Group C qualification scenarios
Qualification scenario - South Africa
After the Sri Lanka-Nepal match on June 11 was washed out, South Africa mathematically secured their spot in the next round. They currently have six points, with the maximum possible for Nepal being five and Sri Lanka three. Either one of Bangladesh or Netherlands can reach six points, but not both as they are yet to play each other. Therefore, there is no way that any two teams can overtake South Africa.
Qualification scenario - Bangladesh
As things stand, Bangladesh's fate is in their own hands, and the equation is very simple; win both remaining matches and go through. They beat Sri Lanka in their opening fixture and lost to South Africa after that. However, they will take heart from both performances as they gear up for a potentially tricky clash against Netherlands. If they get through that game, they will back themselves to beat Nepal as well and go through with six points.
Bangladesh can still go through if they lose one match, but will either require South Africa to beat Nepal or Sri Lanka to beat Netherlands. In case they lose to the Netherlands and beat Nepal, they will also need their net run rate to be greater than that of the Dutch.
If they lose both games, Bangladesh have no chance of qualifying.
Qualification scenario - Netherlands
The situation for Netherlands is identical to Bangladesh; win both games and go through. However, considering their fixtures are against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, this may be a tougher ask for them. It is by no means out of their reach, though.
If they lose to Bangladesh and beat Sri Lanka, they will need South Africa to beat Nepal and in turn, Nepal to beat Bangladesh. But if they beat Bangladesh and lose to Sri Lanka, they will either need South Africa to beat Nepal and Nepal to beat Bangladesh, or Nepal to beat South Africa and lose to Bangladesh by a margin that ensures Bangladesh do not overtake their net run rate. They are technically playing the last game of the group, but that match is happening at almost exactly the same time as Bangladesh-Nepal, so they will not know the net run rate requirements until very late on, if at all.
Again, if they lose both matches, Netherlands cannot qualify.
Qualification scenario - Nepal
Thanks to the washout against Sri Lanka, Nepal's fate is no longer in their own hands. Even if they win both their matches against South Africa and Bangladesh and make it to five points, they will be knocked out in case Netherlands win both of their remaining games and make it to six points.
If they win one and lose one, they will finish on three points. In this case, their only hope of qualifying would be if Bangladesh-Netherlands was washed out, and both sides take enough of a net run rate hit to finish below Nepal.
Qualification scenario - Sri Lanka
With just one point in three matches Sri Lanka's maximum possible tally is three, which they will reach by defeating the Netherlands. But if they are to qualify, they need Bangladesh-Netherlands to be abandoned and Nepal to beat Bangladesh before beating the Dutch themselves. Even in that case, qualification will be dependent on net run rate, and despite their match being last, they will not know those exact requirements until very late. Realistically speaking, they are all but out of the competition.
