Group C scenarios: What New Zealand, Afghanistan, West Indies need for Super Eights qualification

Update: West Indies have qualified for the Super Eights.

All five teams of Group C – Afghanistan, West Indies, New Zealand, Uganda, and Papua New Guinea – can qualify for the Super Eights. With five matches out of the way, this is how the teams stand.

Matches left in Group C:

West Indies v New Zealand, Tarouba, June 13
Afghanistan v Papua New Guinea, Tarouba, June 14
New Zealand v Uganda, Tarouba, June 15
New Zealand v Papua New Guinea, Tarouba, June 17
West Indies v Afghanistan, Gros Islet, June 18

Read: What does England need to qualify for the Super Eights?

Qualification scenario – Afghanistan

A win against the West Indies will see Afghanistan through. If they beat Papua New Guinea but lose to the West Indies, the only way they can be eliminated is if New Zealand win all three matches and the West Indies, who play two Full Members, finish above Afghanistan on net run rate. It seems unlikely, especially as Afghanistan play the last match.

Qualification scenario – West Indies

Since they are tied with Afghanistan on points but behind them on net run rate, the West Indies’s scenario is similar to, if slightly tougher than, Afghanistan’s. If they beat New Zealand, they will be through. If New Zealand win all three matches, the West Indies will have to beat Afghanistan by a margin big enough to finish second. Like Afghanistan, they play last as well.

Qualification scenario – Uganda

That abysmal net run rate will be very difficult to overcome, but Uganda are not out of this yet. They have to absolutely annihilate New Zealand, and then hope for whoever loses Afghanistan versus West Indies to lose their other match as well. Even that will not be enough, for they have to finish at the top of the four-point bracket on net run rate.

Qualification scenario – Papua New Guinea

Two massive wins against Afghanistan and New Zealand are the starting point. Once that happens, their best bet is the West Indies to utterly thrash both Afghanistan and New Zealand by enormous margins. Then, finally, Papua New Guinea have to finish ahead of Afghanistan on net run rate.

Qualification scenario – New Zealand

New Zealand have to beat the West Indies to begin with. If they do, they will be in the race if they beat Uganda and Papua New Guinea by large margins. If they do not win against West Indies, they can qualify only if Afghanistan lose to both the West Indies and Papua New Guinea by a combined margin large enough for their net run rate to drop below New Zealand’s.

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