Following their world record victory against Oman, England have overtaken Scotland's net run rate in Group B of the 2024 T20 World Cup. However, there's still a possibility for them to get eliminated on net run rate - here's how.
Adil Rashid led a brutal performance from the England bowling attack to bowl Oman out for 47 in 13.2 overs in Antigua. Jos Buttler then led with the bat with an unbeaten eight-ball 24 to ensure England achieved the quickest run chase in men’s T20 World Cup history: they reached their target in just 19 balls.
The result boosted England’s chances of advancing to the Super Eights significantly. After their washout against Scotland and loss to Australia, England only had one point from two games, while Scotland had picked up five from three.
England needed to beat Oman and go on to beat Namibia on Saturday (June 15) in order to match Scotland’s tally of five. They will also have to hope Scotland lose to Australia. In that scenario, with both teams finishing on five points, net run rate will determine who goes through.
England have registered the quickest run-chase in men's T20 World Cups
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) June 13, 2024
Here’s the full list of the quickest chases🔽https://t.co/18X19jHAxs pic.twitter.com/KcW4PF2vTb
England turbo-charge their net run rate against Oman
England suffered a heavy defeat to Australia, which affected their NRR, while Scotland beat Namibia by with nine balls to spare wickets before romping home against Oman with 41 balls in hand to boost their NRR to +2.164.
Before the game against Oman, England had a lot of work to do to ensure their NRR could compete with Scotland. They were sitting on -1.800 after two matches. However, their thumping win against Oman means that their NRR is now higher than Scotland’s on +3.081.
Assuming an England victory against Namibia and a Scotland defeat against Australia, it must be safe to also assume that England's net run rate won't fall below that of Scotland in that case, especially with a gap of 0.916 currently, right? Not quite.
Can England's still get eliminated on net run rate?
The short answer is yes.
The worst case scenario for England (in terms of net run rate) is a low-scoring tight win over Namibia and a high-scoring tight defeat for Scotland against Australia, preferably in a shortened game.
If the England-Namibia game ends in a tie with both teams scoring 100 runs each, and England go on to win the Super Over to claim two points, their points will increase from three to five but net run rate will drop from +3.081 to +1.4972.
Following that, if the Scotland-Australia game ends in a tie with the scores above or equal to 216 for both teams (in a 20-over game), and Scotland go on to lose the Super Over, they will end up with five points (same as England), and a net run rate of +1.4973, very slightly above that of England. For a tie (and a subsequent super over loss for Scotland) at any score above 216, Scotland will end up with a better net run rate than England.
If England tying a match with Namibia at a score of 100 looks improbable, the next scenario make England fans a bit more uncomfortable.
Assuming England make 150 against Namibia, and win the game by 10 runs (without overs reduced), their net run rate will drop from +3.08 to +1.988. Now, if the Scotland-Australia match is reduced to five overs a side and ends in a tie with both teams scoring 62 before Scotland loses in the super over, Scotland's net run rate will end up at +1.989, just above England's.
If the Scotland-Australia match is tied at any score higher than 62 (in a five-over game), Scotland will end up with a NRR higher than England's (assuming England win by 10 runs after making 150 in a 20-over game).
How can England safeguard themselves?
A dominating performance anywhere close to what they put up against Oman will see England through to the Super Eights – if Australia manage to beat Scotland.
If England make 180 batting first against Namibia and restrict them to 129 or below, England's net run rate will finish at +2.867. In that case, it will become mathematically impossible for Scotland to overtake England's net run rate if they lose against Australia.
Similarly, if Namibia make 180 batting first, England need to chase it down in 16.2 overs or better to make it mathematically impossible for Scotland to qualify if they lost to Australia.
What if Scotland beat Australia?
All of this could be irrelevant if Scotland manage to beat Australia, in which case they will eliminate England, who will be unable to reach their points tally of seven.
Scotland also have the benefit of playing last, and so will know exactly the equation they need going into the match. Equally, a washout in either Scotland’s last match or England’s will also eliminate England.
