England’s T20 World Cup title defence has got off to a poor start, with a washout against Scotland and defeat to Australia leaving them with no margin for error if they are to make it out of the group stage.
Having mounted a feeble ODI World Cup defence last winter, Jos Buttler and Matthew Mott are heading towards another ignominious campaign, their side sitting on one point after two games. They can lean on the experience of having recovered from a perilous position in the 2022 T20 World Cup, when defeat to Ireland and a washout against Australia left them dependent on net run rate.
However, in 2022 they had the benefit of playing their last group game after Australia’s, meaning they knew exactly what they needed to ensure their net run rate was superior to their Ashes rivals. This time, they will have no such luxury, and their destiny is fully out of their hands.
Australia defeated England by 36 runs to register their second consecutive win in the 2024 Men's T20 World Cup👏
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) June 8, 2024
Check scorecard: https://t.co/yQZr2zGLw8#AUSvsENG #T20WorldCup pic.twitter.com/qwuNqovbC1
How Scotland and Australia could knock England out
Suppose England win their last two games against Namibia and Oman. That would put them on five points. Scotland already have three points - if they beat Oman, they will also reach five. Australia have four points. If they beat Namibia, they will qualify for the Super Eights.
That means that, if Scotland beat Australia, and the above results transpire, England will be knocked out.
However, it may well be possible for Australia to beat Scotland in such a way that knocks England out, depending on each team’s net run rate heading into that game.
Given England’s group games will be all done, Scotland will know exactly what margin of victory they need to keep Australia within, if they do lose, to surpass England’s net run rate. And Australia, having already qualified, will have little incentive to try and grind down the Saltires in order to boost their net run rate.
Has anything like this happened before?
There is precedent for Australia limiting their own winning margin in an effort to try and knock out another team. In the 1999 ODI World Cup, Australia crawled to a target of 111 against West Indies in 41 overs, ensuring their own qualification for the Super Sixes, but also ensuring their opponents did not take too great a hit. “The Australians openly admitted their intention,” according to that year’s Almanack.
The reason was to try and eliminate New Zealand. The Black Caps had beaten Australia in the pool stages, and points against fellow qualifiers would be carried forward. Australia hoped to carry forward their two points against West Indies, though as it was, New Zealand qualified in any case, and Australia still won the title.
