England's top-order, while explosive on paper, has a issues against spin that are bubbling to the surface as the T20 World Cup progresses, writes Katya Witney.
The continuation of England's T20 World Cup campaign is once again dependent on the results of others following their loss to South Africa yesterday (June 21).
The defending champions are no stranger to the situation, and their path out of the group stage was arguably less likely than their one out of the Super Eights now is. They must beat the USA, the higher they can boost their net run rate in the process the better, and hope West Indies lose to South Africa. If their game against the USA is washed out, they will still go through if the Proteas beat the West Indies. However, even if they manage to once again sneak through a closing net, their top order, and in particular how they've fared against spin, will be a worry against the sides they would likely face in the knockout stage.
Jonny Bairstow's form has been in question since the start of the tournament. While he's looked more comfortable batting at three since England made the switch halfway through the group stage, his knock against South Africa was the most concerning yet. In early at three after Phil Salt was dismissed in the second over, it was a stunted, ugly hack of an innings from the get-go. His first four was skewed away one-handed off a thick inside edge, and he should have been out two balls later holding out to third man where Heinrich Klaasen inexplicably spilt a decent chance.
Another one-handed clothed shot followed before his struggles intensified against Keshav Maharaj. Mis-timed cut, reverse straight to the fielder, a hack across the line before, having finally had enough, he attempted a cut to a ball thrown wide and slow by Maharaj, only to send it to Marco Jansen at point. While Bairstow's problems were the most overtly extreme of the England top order, they're part of a wider issue.
Once Bairstow was out, Jos Buttler was dismissed soon after trying to muscle another slow ball from Maharaj over the fence. By the time Moeen Ali, promoted to No.4, was out to Ottneil Baartman two overs later, he was scoring at a run-a-ball having been on strike almost exclusively to Maharaj and Aiden Markram for his 10-ball nine. With their top four all out, one wicket away from Sam Curran, and needing more than ten an over, England's chances were pretty much gone at that point.
While England's top order is explosive on paper, their frailties against spin were also bubbling under the surface in their win over the West Indies. Having powered well ahead of the run rate in powerplay, they were going at near tens when Gudakesh Motie came on to bowl the seventh over. Bowling in tandem with Roston Chase and having been 58-0 when spin was introduced, they scored 25-1 across the next four overs of spin and were back behind the required rate again by the end of over ten.
The top order's preference for pace on the ball in the powerplay is hardly new information. Phil Salt is pretty much a pace specialist - he averages 122 at a strike rate of 184.84 against left-arm pace in T20Is. However, the balance of right-handers v left-handers England picked for this World Cup has exacerbated the preference into a near-requirement.
They started the tournament with exclusively right-handers until Moeen at five. However, after Adam Zampa put a strangle-hold on a promising start to their chase against Australia, they promoted Moeen to three against the West Indies, breaking up their string of right-handers. While this seems like the least disruptive change to combat the match-up issue, it hasn't been effective. It might have solved the immediate problem of the lack of a left-hander up top, but the broader issue against spin remains. Moeen averages less than 16 against off-spin in T20Is, and promoting him to three puts him in usually around the end of the powerplay when spinners are likely to be brought into the game.
If England make it through to the semi-finals, they are most likely to face one of India or Australia. They struggled against Zampa in their group-stage encounter, while India have Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal and Axar Patel at their disposal. It's not hard to work out what their plan will be against England's top order.
The only option England really have to bring into play is Ben Duckett. Having not featured in the tournament, he would be a wildcard thrown into the middle, but as a left-hander who has demonstrated strength against spin, his inclusion would make sense. Regardless, in the case that England make it through, they have to do something to combat the issue because, as of now, they're a sitting duck.
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