Why Axar was promoted and Nawaz was held back: The tactical calls that decided India-Pakistan, explained

Virat Kohli’s two sixes off Haris Rauf will be talked about for some time, as will be his once-in-a-lifetime 53-ball unbeaten 82. Support came from Hardik Pandya (40 in 37), while R Ashwin finished things off with a leave that is likely to attain cult status, and a chip over mid-off.

Before that, the four Indian fast bowlers – Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Arshdeep Singh, Mohammed Shami, and Pandya – were terrific in their contrasting styles. But then, so were Shaheen Shah Afridi, Naseem Shah, and Haris Rauf – Pakistan’s fast bowlers. And while not quite Kohli, Shan Masood (52 not out in 42) and Iftikhar Ahmed (51 in 34) both scored vital fifties in a match of middling totals.

When several cricketers from both sides play outstanding cricket, tactical ploys (and luck) often decide the outcome of a close matches. On Sunday, most of India’s worked, and Pakistan’s did not.

Team selections

The conditions were conducive to new-ball bowling, and both teams unsurprisingly went in with three specialist fast bowlers. Yet, India held a card here. While Pandya, their all-rounder of choice, is a more-than-handy fast bowler, Pakistan’s all-rounders – Shadab Khan and Mohammad Nawaz – are spinners.

Thus, while India could go play four fast bowlers without compromising on batting, Pakistan could not afford that luxury. The situation would not have arisen, had they not left out Faheem Ashraf or placed faith in Mohammad Wasim, who played in every match in the tri-series in New Zealand.

So, they had to leave out at least one of Mohammad Hasnain, their fourth fast bowler; one of Shadab and Nawaz; or one of their many middle-order batters, all of whom bowl spin. They decided to bolster their batting, so they dropped Hasnain.

India, on the other hand, could pick two spinners. They went in with Axar Patel, whom they could float up to punctuate an all-right-hander top-order; and R Ashwin, presumably because Babar Azam strikes at 109 against off-spin and Mohammad Rizwan 118, and were likely to play well into the middle overs.

That vital fourth over of spin

The conditions were conducive, and as Bhuvneshwar’s first over showed, there was plenty in it for those who can use the new ball well. It was perhaps a tad surprising that India did not opt for Shami – who has been magnificent with the new ball in the longer formats.

Arshdeep justified the decision by taking out Babar and Rizwan. With both out of their way, India predictably delayed Ashwin until the eighth over. Masood and Iftikhar, having settled down, tried to take him on. They could not in his first over, but in his second, Iftikhar hit a six over long-on. At the other end, Axar went for three sixes in his only over.

Pandya had risen to the task, which meant that India could give him his full quota of overs. However, that still left an over of spin to be bowled from the 13th over onwards; and Pakistan had made it clear that they would take on the spinners.

Thus, Rohit used pace at both ends and bided his time. Shami pinned Iftikhar lbw, but still Rohit held back Ashwin. Incredibly, Pakistan did not wait for that over of spin for an all-out attack. Instead, Shadab and Haider Ali both holed out in the deep to near-identical slogs off Pandya in the 14th over.

Nawaz walked out. In the process of preserving Asif Ali, Pakistan broke their left-right combination, enabling India to answer both the ‘when’ and ‘who’ of the fourth over of spin. Ashwin, who concedes 6.25 an over to left-handers in all Twenty20 (6.19 in T20Is), bowled the next over to two left-handers and conceded eight.

The Axar promotion

Pakistan’s fast bowlers gave it back after the break, leaving India reeling at 26-3. Only three balls remained in the powerplay when the third wicket fell, and most would have expected Pandya to walk out. Instead, India sent in Axar.

One can see the logic. There were 14 overs after the ongoing one; the spinners had to bowl eight of them; and both spinners turned the ball into Axar. His career strike rate is only 131, but that number went up to 152 in the 2022 IPL.

Of late, Kohli has struggled against spinners who turn the ball the same direction. Promoting Axar made sense. He could fail, of course (he did), but if he did an Iftikhar and hit one or both spinners out of the attack, Pakistan would have had to use up valuable overs of pace.

Holding back Nawaz

It is not every day that left-arm spinners concede three sixes to right-handed batters in the 12th over of each innings of a Twenty20 match, but the India-Pakistan match featured exactly that.

India managed to hit Nawaz out of the attack. Like India, Pakistan were left with one over of spin to bowl, and were looking for an opportunity to sneak it in. And unlike India, they could not break through, and had to turn to Nawaz out of compulsion in the 20th over.

It was not a poor ploy. Kohli had lofted Rauf for two of the most incredible sixes off the last two balls of the 19th over. Had he failed in even one of the attempts, Nawaz would have had to defend a target in excess of 20. Instead, he had to defend 16, exactly what Shaheen and Rauf had conceded in each of their last two overs.

That last over

Nawaz himself did not bowl poorly in the 20th over. He took two wickets, hit the stumps with a no-ball, and conceded a lone boundary hit.

He was not new to this. Asked to defend seven in the last over in Dubai less than two months ago, he had conceded a solitary run off his first three balls before Pandya hit him for six. That night, he had bowled on Pandya’s off-stump. Here, he aimed at Pandya’s leg, forced him to mistime, and avenged Dubai.

Three balls into the over, he had conceded three and taken a wicket. He was winning the battle. Then came the controversial no-ball that went for six. Off the free hit, he did the right thing by bowling wide of Kohli – but it turned out to be too wide.

The next ball hit the stumps and India ran three byes. He followed Dinesh Karthik’s feet and had him stumped next ball. Despite that free hit, despite a six, he had somehow kept Pakistan alive.

There was not much wrong with the next ball either, but what had worked on Karthik did not work on Ashwin, who stood deeper inside the crease, spotted the line early, and left the ball alone.

This was one of those days, when almost every tactic by India worked and almost none of Pakistan’s did.

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