After three games, Australia are in a spot of bother at the T20 World Cup. Their heavy defeat to New Zealand in their opening fixture has left them with the worst NRR in their group (-1.555). Even a special Marcus Stoinis onslaught against Sri Lanka could not haul Australia to within touching distance of England or New Zealand, in NRR terms. The Kiwis have already mustered five points from three games, with England having three points in as many matches. Australia, meanwhile, have the same points tally as England but boast a much poorer NRR. So, the hosts have a lot of work to do.

England and New Zealand’s NRR is in the positive; 0.239 and 3.850, respectively. If Australia are to get their NRR into the positive zone, they will have to win big against Ireland on Monday. For that to happen, Australia, if they bat first and score 200 in their stipulated 20 overs, will roughly have to defeat Ireland by at least 59 runs. If Australia were to produce a similar margin of victory in their final match against Afghanistan, their NRR would approximately get up to 0.782. If Australia are to go past England’s NRR in their next game, they will have to win by around 74 runs, which might not be easy against an Ireland side that has already defeated England.

In that scenario, Australia might be able to get to a better NRR than England, provided the 2010 T20 World Cup winners don’t enjoy massive victories in their last two games. England’s remaining encounters are against New Zealand and Sri Lanka, and a defeat in either of them would leave door open for Australia to barge through. In that case, the Aussies would not need to rely on a tiebreaker to see them through.

If Australia and England win all of their games, and the Black Caps lose to England but win against Ireland, all three teams would finish on seven points, bringing NRR into play. Thus, Australia might be quietly hoping for their Trans-Tasman rivals to upstage England on Tuesday. If that happens, England’s maximum points tally would be five. Australia, meanwhile, could get up to seven by winning both of their matches and would qualify.

Sri Lanka could also throw a spanner in the works if they beat Afghanistan and England in their remaining fixtures. Their maximum points tally, though, is lesser than Australia’s, meaning that if the hosts win both of their matches and New Zealand win at least one game, it will eliminate Sri Lanka.

There is also a possibility of three teams finishing on five points. If New Zealand beat England and England defeat Sri Lanka, the 2021 semi-finalists will only end up on five points. If Australia lose to Ireland and beat Afghanistan, the defending champions will finish with five points. Ireland, because they already have three points, would also end up with five points. Additionally, if Afghanistan win both of their remaining games (which includes a win against Australia), and England lose one of their remaining two matches, Afghanistan would finish with six points – a point more than both Australia and England.

Hence, there are several different turns this group can take. In an ideal scenario, Australia would want England losing one of their two remaining games. If that does not happen, the defending champions would have to win both of their matches by a big margin and hope that England don’t win as big. There could be a three-way tie at seven points as well, with Australia, England and New Zealand all finishing with seven points. In that scenario, Australia need to ensure their NRR is better than at least one of England and New Zealand.

England, however, play their last group game a day later than Australia, meaning that they, unlike Australia, might know exactly what they need. So, Australia need to win both of their matches, and then hope that other things fall into place. That is the most they can simplify the complicated situation they currently find themselves in.

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