Alex Hales-Jos Buttler vs Pakistan’s powerplay barrage

England struggled at the start of their T20 World Cup campaign, often losing early wickets in a clump and inviting pressure. But they seem to have turned a corner. They have now gone through three power plays without losing a wicket, scoring 48, 70 and 63 in the process. A couple of days ago, India painfully found out how destructive Buttler and Hales can be if they get their eye in.

Pakistan, though, seem to have better bowling resources and have the third-best economy rate in this phase (6.19). Shaheen Shah Afridi can swing the ball prodigiously and can expose Hales’ tendency to fall across his stumps. Haris Rauf can rattle them with pace and Naseem Shah is never too far away from producing an unplayable delivery. Mohammad Wasim, too, can chip in.

With Pakistan slightly averse to use spin in the powerplay, Buttler and Hales will be fed a diet of high-quality pace bowling. In the games that England have bossed, they have been able to feast on it. In matches where both openers have struggled have struggled against the new bal, they have not won the contest. Expect it to be the same come Sunday.

Liam Livingstone-Moeen Ali vs Pakistan’s spinners

Livingstone and Moeen are two of the cleanest ball-strikers against spin in the England team. But with Buttler and Hales doing the bulk of the scoring in their three most recent games, they have not had much work to do. If the pair were to fall cheaply, without inflicting their usual damage in the powerplay, the onus might fall on Livingstone and Moeen to inject impetus during the middle overs.

England have not been bad in the middle of the innings, but they have not been very good either. Their runs in this phase have come at a run rate of 7.73, and they have huffed and puffed against wrist-spin in particular. So, they will have their work cut out against Shadab Khan, who has had a fine tournament.

Shadab has a similar record against right-handed and left-handed batters at this T20 World Cup; 6 wickets at an economy rate of 6.47 against RHB and 4 wickets at an economy rate of 6.83 against LHB. His wicket-taking ability could also be key in restricting a deep England batting unit that is stacked with power.

It would also be interesting to see how much Iftikhar Ahmed and Mohammad Nawaz bowl. Both have been used sparingly but if given the ball on Sunday, England could try to hit them out of the attack, thereby opening up wicket-taking opportunities for Pakistan.

The death-overs battle

With the ball, Pakistan and England have been two of the best teams at the death. Among those who qualified for the Super 12, their economy rates of 7.85 and 7.94 respectively is the third and fourth best of the tournament. Both sides usually opt for an assortment of cutters, slower deliveries and yorkers, with Haris and Mark Wood usually complementing the seamers with raw pace.

With the bat, though, Pakistan have been considerably better at the end of the innings, scoring at 9.63 runs per over (third-best among Super 12 teams). England, meanwhile, have been slightly sluggish, going at only 7.93 (the fifth-worst among all sides).

From Pakistan’s standpoint, a perfect bowling display would comprise of nipping Buttler and Hales out early, keeping Livingstone and Moeen quiet against spin and then finishing off the job at the death. England seem to have answers to two of those questions. Whether they find a solution for their final dilemma could define who lifts the trophy.

Babar Azam-Mohammad Rizwan vs conservative batting

The only thing debated more than the weather at this T20 World Cup has been Babar and Rizwan’s batting approach. Numbers suggest that the longer they bat, the better it is for Pakistan, but if they overdo it slightly, and score too slowly in the powerplay it leaves them playing catch-up for the rest of the innings.

Against New Zealand, both showed an inclination to attack more at the outset. Rizwan’s first-ball boundary set the tone for a wonderful powerplay and Pakistan never looked back. Pakistan will hope that continues on Sunday, against a side that has the second-worst economy rate (7.53) in the powerplay.

It won’t be straightforward, considering left-arm pacers (like Sam Curran) have caused them a bit of grief already and batting against high-pace (and Mark Wood) is not quite their strongest suit. Both Babar and Rizwan have a tendency to fish at deliveries outside off stump (something Ben Stokes and Chris Woakes might be interested in).

But if Pakistan lose out on that match-up, they will have to make up for it with runs in the middle overs, which might not be easy against a resurgent Adil Rashid and England’s variety of options. Pakistan can hold their own at the death but if they lose the two phases that precede it, they will have a mountain to climb.

Pakistan’s middle order vs England’s troika of spinners

It is almost impossible to guess how many overs of spin England will bowl and who will bowl them. Against India, Rashid bowled four and Livingstone bowled three. Moeen, much more established than Livingstone as a spinner in international cricket, was not called upon.

A lot of this is based on match-ups and what England feel will make the batters most uncomfortable. India played Rishabh Pant at Adelaide to target Rashid, so that could be something Pakistan do as well, possibly bumping up Nawaz to take on the leg-spinner. Shan Masood can also use the sweep to great effect and utilise the massive square boundaries at the MCG to keep the scoreboard ticking over.

Another idea Pakistan could contemplate is unleashing Shadab. He has struck at 147.93 against spin in all T20s this year, and is in decent touch. This could mean a demotion for Iftikhar. That, though, might not be a bad outcome, considering he has struck at 130.97 against pace this year, as opposed to 109.91 against spin.

England & Pakistan vs the weather

Well, this is one element that is in neither team’s control. But with heavy rain predicted (both on the day of the final and on the reserve day), it is imperative that this gets a mention. All the match-ups spoken about previously could turn into damp squibs. So, if both teams are unable to collectively win this battle, there might not be a lot more to discuss, apart from, of course, why the T20 World Cup was held at this time of the year in Australia.

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