Branded as one of the contenders for the title, and coming into the tournament off the back of some quality T20 cricket courtesy of the IPL, India were widely expected to ease their way into the semi-finals of the T20 World Cup.
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That looks uncertain now, with back-to-back losses to Pakistan and New Zealand leaving them in the bottom half of their group points table; another loss and they’ll be heading for a painful exit from the group stages.
However, the tournament isn’t technically done for the team yet, and a semi-final spot is still possible, even if it requires a quick return to form and reliance on others for favourable results.
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Here’s what needs to happen for India to book a berth in the final four:
For starters, India need to win all their remaining games – against Afghanistan, Namibia and Scotland, to even stand a chance to qualify. Another loss would completely extinguish their hopes.
Further, New Zealand would have to lose at least one of their next three games.
If New Zealand beat Scotland and Namibia, but lose to Afghanistan, they would have six points, the same as India if they win all their games from here on. Afghanistan, too, would be tied with six points, making it a three-way fight, with the team with the superior net run-rate going through. Currently, India’s net run-rate of (-1.609) is the second-worst in the group after Scotland, which means India will need to win their games big. Massive wins over Scotland and Namibia plus a comfortable victory over Afghanistan should be enough for India to make it through if New Zealand aren’t quite as ruthless in their games against the two Associate teams.
Another possibility, although a tad trickier, is if New Zealand beat Afghanistan, but lose to either Namibia or Scotland. That would keep their tally to six, the same as India if they win all three. In that case, one of Scotland and Namibia (at four points) will have the same points as Afghanistan. India will qualify if they have a higher net run-rate than the Kiwis.
The net run-rate is a big concern though – even if India are tied on points with Afghanistan and/or New Zealand, the two teams have much superior figures at the moment (3.097 and 0.765), and overtaking them will require big wins, not to mention other scenarios falling in place. All in all, the chances are extremely bleak.
