Number of wins required for semi-final qualification

The format of the ongoing tournament is such that each team plays nine league games, with the top four teams qualifying for the semi-finals. The general idea is that six wins out of nine guarantees a top-four finish. However, that is not necessarily the case.

Given the way the points table stands currently, there’s a possibility that five teams might end up with six wins or more, resulting in the qualification coming down to the net run rate.

Similarly, there’s also a possibility that only three teams reach six or more wins, with the fourth spot belonging to the team having just five wins with the highest net run rate.

India – Played 5, Won 5, Lost 0

India are the best placed in the semi-finals race, at the top of the table. Their remaining games are against England, Sri Lanka, South Africa, and Netherlands. Even if they only win one of them and get to six wins, their net run rate should be good enough to take them through in case there is a logjam on six wins.

New Zealand – Played 5, Won 4, Lost 1

New Zealand sit pretty in third – equal on points with second-placed South Africa, but have some tough games coming up against South Africa, Australia, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Luckily for them, their net run rate is even better than India’s, meaning if they win two out of their next four, it should be good enough to make them finish in the top four. However, a slip up in the next two games, which is entirely possible, will increase the pressure on them for the last two significantly.

South Africa – Played 5, Won 4, Lost 1

Barring the odd blip against Netherlands, South Africa have looked strong as ever. A win against Bangladesh took them to second on the table as their net run rate is superior to New Zealand’s. In fact, they have the best net run rate by far among all ten teams, something that will come in handy in case they get on a losing spree and end up in a mid-table tussle for qualification. On the other hand, if they continue dominating like they have, their game against India in Kolkata might become a shoot-out for the top spot.

Australia – Played 4, Won 2, Lost 2

Having started poorly, Australia have bounced back well and sit fourth on the table at this stage. Their five remaining matches are against Netherlands, New Zealand, England, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh. Ideally, they’d like to win all matches to guarantee a semi-final berth for themselves. Their low net run rate (-0.193 at this stage) might play spoilsport otherwise if it comes down to that.

Pakistan – Played 5, Won 2, Lost 3

Pakistan may be struggling at the moment, but they are still not out of the semi-final race. Four victories in the four remaining games will take them to 12 points (six wins). That might still not be enough as four other teams can end up with six or more wins as well, but anything less than that will make it extremely tough for them to harbour hopes of finishing in the top four.

Afghanistan – Played 5, Won 2, Lost 3

Afghanistan came into the World Cup with a lot of promise and they’ve lived up to that so far, winning two of their first five games. Mathematically, they still have a chance of getting to six wins and finishing in the top four if they win their remaining four games, against Sri Lanka, Netherlands, Australia, and South Africa. While an uphill task, you can never say never with this Afghan side.

Bangladesh – Played 5, Won 1 Lost 4

Bangladesh captain Shakib Al Hasan said that they might have won only one of the first five games, but they aren’t in that bad a spot in the points table. He might be wrong because following a defeat to South Africa, their fourth of the tournament, they can only get to five wins at max, and it probably won’t be enough for a top four finish.

Netherlands – Played 4, Won 1, Lost 3

Netherlands have to win all five of their remaining games to get to six wins and 12 points. With games against Australia, India, and England, that might be a tough ask, but so was beating South Africa, which they did comprehensively. If they win four out of the five, they’ll hope that India, New Zealand, and South Africa run off with as many victories as possible at the top of the table, leaving the possibility open for a team to qualify with five wins for the fourth spot.

Sri Lanka – Played 4, Won 1, Lost 3

Sri Lanka registered their first win in the fourth game of the tournament. Any more defeats and their already slim chances of semi-final qualification will reduce further.

England – Played 4, Won 1, Lost 3

The bottom of the table is not the place England would have expected to see themselves mid-way through the tournament. But here they are, needing five consecutive victories for a chance at semi-final qualification. Even then, they’ll have to hope that not more than three teams end with six wins or more, for if they do, England’s current net run rate of -1.248 might become detrimental to their cause.