Why India’s 2023 World Cup challenge could fall flat

It should be India. The players are all peaking at the right time and they’re playing in front of their adoring home fans who have seen them win 15 out of their last 18 ODIs at home.

With just under 10 days to go before it all kicks off, the excitement is palpable as teams scramble to finalise their squads and call-up last-minute injury replacements. India, on the other hand, have seemingly had little to worry about after welcoming back their mainstays Jasprit Bumrah, Shreyas Iyer and KL Rahul.

But, we’ve seen it all before. Over the last ten years in ICC tournaments, India have flourished in the beginning only to flounder at crucial moments. There are reasons to believe it won’t be the fairytale journey it’s promised to be this time either.

Is the third spinner a worry?

Axar Patel is racing against time to be fit for the tournament after he was ruled out of the third ODI against Australia. India are looking at R Ashwin as a replacement, who comes with tremendous experience and has been arguably India’s greatest match-winner in Test cricket at home over the last decade.

But, his ODI career has been less straightforward. He’s been guilty of bowling defensive lines in the middle overs, which led to him being dropped from the ODI squad after 2017, and he only played two 50-over games for India over six years before earning a comeback last week.

Ashwin averages close to 40 between overs 15-35 in ODIs. While he has a dot percentage of 52.8, his strike rate of 51 shows batters are able to play him out, negating his utility as a strike bowler. With Ravindra Jadeja struggling for wickets as well, India risk walking into the World Cup with two of their spinners either short on match practice or confidence.

It appears that Ashwin’s selection is aimed to provide a safety cushion to a side that tends to go back to their warhorses in case of crisis. Mohammed Shami, who reportedly was informed that he would not be considered for T20I selection anymore, came in for the injured Jasprit Bumrah for the T20 World Cup last year. That approach rarely pays off, and Shami went at 7.15 an over in that tournament, picking up six wickets in as many games.

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Even if Axar recovers his fitness in time and Ashwin isn’t picked, India will play the World Cup with two similar bowlers in Jadeja and Axar. Both are left-arm orthodox and, while the left-handed Kuldeep Yadav can turn the ball both ways, the spin attack still lacks variety.

Axar also hasn’t been in the greatest bowling form. While he has improved his batting skills, he’s only picked up four wickets in eight ODIs this year at an average of 59. India have also hesitated to bowl both him and Jadeja against the left-handers, resulting in under-utilisation.

Is Jadeja’s batting form a worry?

Jadeja has taken huge strides in Test cricket but his ODI batting remains a concern. He has not made a fifty in 13 innings and averages 27.14 in this period. That he bats mostly at seven somewhat alleviates this issue, but his strike rate of 59.93 is the bigger worry.

Expected to don the role of a finisher, Jadeja has repeatedly come up short in recent times. He’s scored his runs at a rate of more than a run a ball just twice in his last 13 innings. On ten occasions, his strike rate has been below 70.

This is one of the reasons that India have shown little inclination to play three lethal quicks in Bumrah, Shami and Mohammed Siraj in their XI recently. Instead, they’ve opted to boost their batting depth with Shardul Thakur at No.8. Thakur is yet to play a defining knock in ODIs, but his presence gives the team more comfort when batting, allowing the middle order to go harder without fear of what comes next.

In an ideal world, all three of Bumrah, Siraj and Shami would make the XI. But Jadeja’s poor batting form combined with the lack batting from any of the three makes that combination risky. Playing them all would leave Hardik Pandya as the last recognised batter before Jadeja at No.6.

Jadeja is also often India’s only left-hander in the top seven, and his poor returns do not give India the option of playing him as a floater to form favourable matchups.

But despite his batting woes, India need Jadeja. His absence in last year’s T20 World Cup vastly affected the balance of the side, with Axar or Ashwin batting at No.7. While both are capable batters and can play crucial cameos, expecting them to finish off games regularly is a huge ask. Jadeja, despite his poor run, is more reliable.

With high scores expected in this World Cup, how a team ends an innings will be crucial. Jadeja will be persisted with at No.7, mainly for the lack of suitable all-round replacements. But it could prove costly.

Is the problem of plenty a happy headache?

Every India batter in the World Cup squad has runs behind them, but often that abundance of form can be overwhelming. While the top three pick themselves, four players will fight for the remaining two positions in the middle order.

Left-hander Ishan Kishan, otherwise an opener, batted at No.5 against Pakistan in the Asia Cup over injured KL Rahul. He made an important 82 which was singled out for praise by Rohit Sharma.

Rahul, who was then fit for the Super Fours game against Pakistan, was initially not in the XI despite his prior valuable contributions at No.5. Instead, Kishan, who played one game at the spot, edged ahead. However, a last-minute injury to Iyer opened a door for Rahul at No.4, and he delivered a century.

Iyer also made a hundred against Australia and has been a reliable No.4 for India recently. Two fifties from Suryakumar Yadav, backed by the team for his ability to finish an innings despite a middling ODI record, also complicates matters.

While both Iyer and Rahul have earned their spots at No. 4 and 5, it is unlikely to be that straightforward. Kishan provides another left hands option and Yadav frequent frightening bursts of sixes. Too many choices could lead to a lack of clarity and temptation change their approach too easily. That’s the last thing a team wants with the pressure already on.