A massive win against Sri Lanka at Bengaluru virtually put New Zealand into the semi-final along with India, South Africa, and Australia. New Zealand’s qualification will also lead to both Pakistan and Afghanistan getting knocked out.

While academic, Afghanistan still have a slim chance to go past New Zealand. Had they bowled first at Ahmedabad, they would have been eliminated straight away, but they did not.

They now have to beat South Africa by 438 runs. In other words, if they score 437 or fewer, they will be knocked out even before South Africa bat. Even if they get to that mammoth total, they will have to bowl out South Africa for a ridiculously low total.

What about South Africa? Not only have they qualified but they are also guaranteed either the second or the third place, as are Australia. The two teams will clash in Kolkata on November 16 (if Pakistan qualify, then at Mumbai on November 15).

What if South Africa v Australia semi-final gets washed out?

What if that match is washed out? There is a reserve day, but what if that is washed out as well? Clause 16.10.3 of ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup 2023 reads: “If following a tie, weather conditions prevent the Super Over from being completed, or if the match is abandoned or a no result at the end of the reserve day, then the team which proceeds to the Final will be the team that finished in the higher position in the league stage.”

In other words, whoever finishes at second place will hold an advantage going into the semi-final. South Africa and Australia are on 12 points apiece. South Africa (+1.376) hold a net run rate advantage over Australia (+0.861), but Australia play Bangladesh at Gahunje the day after South Africa play Afghanistan at Ahmedabad, and will know exactly what to do to secure second place.

In terms of the weather in Kolkata, the venue of the South Africa-Australia semi-final, there is some rain expected on Thursday (November 16) and Friday (November 17, reserve day).