Pakistan could still qualify for the 2023 World Cup semi-finals despite their defeat to Afghanistan in Chennai. But they face a tough ask to get there.
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Afghanistan beat Pakistan by eight wickets in the fifth round of matches in the competition. It was Pakistan’s third consecutive loss after they suffered thumping defeats to both India and Australia following their opening two wins. As a result, their points total remains at four with five matches played, and they sit in fifth position in the table outside the four qualifying positions.
Pakistan’s situation is worsened given that, of the five teams below them, only Afghanistan don’t have a game in hand. Above them, both South Africa and Australia are also yet to play/finish their fifth game. Similarly not in Pakistan’s favour is the emerging gap between the top four teams and the rest. On ten points, with five wins from five, India might well already have enough to qualify. One more win would mean the only way they could not qualify would be on net run rate. Pakistan would also have to win three of their remaining four games to overhaul New Zealand’s current points total. If New Zealand win just two of their remaining four, Pakistan would have to win all of their matches and rely on net run rate to usurp them. The Black Caps have had an easier first half of the draw, with Australia, South Africa and then Pakistan up next.
The maximum number of points Pakistan can now reach is 12. Assuming South Africa beat Bangladesh, they will be on eight points after five matches. Three wins from their final four would put them out of reach, and their brilliant net run rate means two would also effectively put them clear. However, they have a hard run-in, with Pakistan, New Zealand and India up before their last group game against Afghanistan.
Still, realistically, Pakistan are racing Australia and those below for the fourth qualifying position. Assuming Australia beat the Netherlands in their next game, Pakistan would have to win two more matches than them in their last four to overtake them. Given Australia have yet to play Afghanistan or Bangladesh, Pakistan would probably have to hope they lose to both of New Zealand and England for that to happen, while winning all of their own matches.
Should Australia lose one of their remaining matches and Pakistan win all of theirs, the equation would come down to net run rate. Australia currently have a better net run rate but not an unreachable one. Pakistan’s best hope of overtaking them for fourth spot is to win all of their matches by big margins.
From those scenarios, Pakistan already have a tough ask before considering all the teams behind them trying to do the same thing. Level on points, Afghanistan have all the same permutations as they do, albeit with an inferior net run rate. None of the four teams on two points are technically out of reach of semi-final qualifications either. Pakistan will have to outpace them as well as reeling in those above them to qualify.
In short, Pakistan probably have to win all of their matches to keep their hopes of qualifying alive, and rely on those above them losing. Given that they still have South Africa and New Zealand left to play, they have the chance to take points off some of their rivals. Equally, their current struggles make an excellent run of form look unlikely
