Glenn Maxwell hit 201*, the first double-century in an ODI chase and one of the greatest innings in the format’s history, to seal Australia’s place in the World Cup semi-finals. Here’s what that result means for the rest of the challengers.
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Australia have joined India and South Africa in the last four, and those three have locked up the top three spots as well. Australia will play South Africa in one semi-final, while India will play one of Afghanistan, Pakistan and New Zealand in the other. England, Netherlands, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are all out of the hunt.
Those three teams are all locked on four wins with one game each to play. Net run rate is likely to play a key part, but so too could the weather. New Zealand have Sri Lanka up next, and the best net run rate of the three, standing at 0.398. If they win, they will be well set to qualify. To simplify, Pakistan would need to beat England by 130 runs or chase a total inside 29 overs, plus whatever New Zealand’s margin against Sri Lanka is. Afghanistan’s net run rate is even further back on -0.338. They would need to win by at least 268 runs to overtake that mark.
However, weather could yet impact the New Zealand-Sri Lanka clash. Should no result be possible, or should New Zealand lose, that would leave Pakistan and Afghanistan in a straight shootout. In Pakistan’s favour is that they play last of the three teams, so will know their net run rate equation. Afghanistan would need to beat South Africa by at least 133 runs, or chase a target inside at most 25 overs to leave Pakistan with any work to do on that front.
To sum up, New Zealand’s net run rate situation is such that, barring a mammoth win for Pakistan, a win would see them through, and if they fail to win, each of Afghanistan and Pakistan at best equalling their result would also likely be enough.
Pakistan might be left with an implausible but not impossible net run rate task against England, but are likely hoping for rain or Sri Lanka to do them a favour. In that case, a win would almost certainly be enough, and they will know exactly what net run rate swing they need, if they do need any at all.
Afghanistan have the hardest game of the three, and the toughest task. In all likelihood, they need to win, and hope that neither of New Zealand or Pakistan do so, if they are to make the semi-finals.
