CWC23: Where do England stand currently?

25 games into the league stage of the 2023 World Cup, defending champions England find themselves languishing in ninth spot with just one victory out of five games.

They have lost against New Zealand, Afghanistan, South Africa, and Sri Lanka, with their only victory coming against Bangladesh in Dharamshala. England’s net run rate (-1.634) is also the second worst among the ten teams.

CWC23: Can England still qualify?

Things might be looking down and out for Jos Buttler’s side, but mathematically, there’s still a possibility for them to finish in the top four and qualify for the semi-finals.

If they win their four remaining games, England will go up to ten points. That in itself won’t be enough for qualification as they will have to hope that other results go their way.

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The most favourable pathway for them would be to hope that two out of India, South Africa, and New Zealand run away with victories and finish in the top two, while the third among them loses most of their remaining games. That will open up the battle for the third and fourth spot and England will then have a chance of qualifying with ten points.

Here’s a scenario that would see them finish in the top four:

If India win all their remaining games except against England and so do South Africa (except against India), then India and South Africa will end up with eight and seven wins respectively and finish in the top two.

New Zealand will then have to lose all their remaining games (including against Sri Lanka and Pakistan), Afghanistan will have to beat Australia who in turn shouldn’t win more than one game (against New Zealand), and Sri Lanka and Pakistan will have to win exactly two games.

This way, all five of New Zealand, Australia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka will end up on eight points, pushing England up to third with ten points.

There are a few variations of the above scenario which can also work in England’s favour, but all of them are equally complicated. Simply put, England need to win all four of their remaining games to stand a chance of qualifying for the semi-finals. Even a 100 per cent record from here does not guarantee qualification but it does give them an outside chance.