CWC23: Where do Afghanistan stand?

Having played six games already, Afghanistan have exceeded expectations by winning three of them, all against teams that have previously won the World Cup, including England, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

They now sit fifth on the points table with six points to their name. Above them are Australia and New Zealand on fourth and third respectively with eight points each, while below them are Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Netherlands (in that order) with four points each. Afghanistan are the only team with six points, dividing the points table into two halves.

Afghanistan’s net run rate, however, is not the best. Three defeats by big margins mean that their net run rate is hovering below -0.7. According to Betway, Afghanistan are 125/1 outsiders to win the World Cup.

CWC: How can Afghanistan qualify for the semi-finals?

Afghanistan’s remaining matches are against Netherlands, Australia, and South Africa. They currently trail Australia and New Zealand by one victory and South Africa by two victories, which makes their games against Australia and South Africa extremely important. On the one hand, their schedule is a difficult one. On the other, they have the opportunity to take points off their semi-final rivals.

Ideally, if Afghanistan win all their three games, they go up to 12 points. In that case, Australia will only be able to reach 12 points at best since they would have lost against Afghanistan. But Australia (+0.970) have a vastly superior net run rate compared to Afghanistan (-0.718), meaning if they were to get tied on points, Australia would most likely prevail. Australia’s other two games are against England and Bangladesh, the bottom two sides in the World Cup.

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Afghanistan will be hoping that either Australia or New Zealand lose at least two of their remaining three games while they themselves win all three, in which case Afghanistan will end up with more points than Australia or New Zealand (whoever loses two or more games). If South Africa lose all three games, against New Zealand, India and Afghanistan, then Afghanistan can also overtake them.

There’s also an outside chance that any of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, or Netherlands could end up with ten points if they win all of their remaining three games.

While Pakistan and Sri Lanka’s paths won’t cross with Afghanistan any more in the league stage, Netherlands are to play a game against them, which if they win, will mean that Afghanistan will have to win against Australia and South Africa to reach ten points, making the road extremely tough for them.

If Afghanistan win three games

# Reach 12 points
# New Zealand lose two games, or Australia lose to England or Bangladesh, or South Africa lose to India and New Zealand, ending up on less than 12 points, paving the way for Afghanistan to finish on top four without the need for net run rate.

If Afghanistan win two games

# Reach 10 points
# If losing to Netherlands: Same scenario as above. If losing to Australia: Same as above, but require Australia to lose to both England and Bangladesh. If losing to South Africa: Can only catch New Zealand or Australia, as above. All dependent on net run rate.
# Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Netherlands can also reach 10
# If New Zealand or Australia lose all three games, and Netherlands, Pakistan and Sri Lanka all lose one game, then can reach top four without NRR.

If Afghanistan win one game

# Afghanistan win one match out of three, finish with eight points.
# Australia or New Zealand or both lose all three games, don’t go beyond eight points.
# Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Netherlands lose at least one game each, don’t go beyond eight points.
# England or Bangladesh, or both, don’t win all three games, or even if they do, don’t do so with big margins.
# Then progression is dependent on NRR