It came as a surprise to many – not least England – to learn that qualification for the 2025 Champions Trophy will depend on performances in the ongoing World Cup. The eight-team event will take place in Pakistan, and will comprise the hosts and the top seven teams in this World Cup who aren’t Pakistan.

It’s not something that had come in for much consideration before this week, but it will serve to inject some much-needed jeopardy into the second month of the World Cup. While Afghanistan have a chance of making the top four, it is likely that the semi-finalists will be India, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

It is far less clear who will finish outside the top eight, and therefore fail to make it to the 2025 Champions Trophy. As it stands, England are tenth on one win. Bangladesh also have one win, while all of Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Netherlands have two wins each. Afghanistan have three wins.

If England win all three games, that will almost certainly guarantee a top-eight finish, though there are combinations of results that would see all of the top nine gain four wins at least in total, which would mean the final equation would come down to net run rate. These require the current top four, all of whom already have four wins, to lose against the current bottom six, including needing Netherlands beating India. So four wins, in total, will almost certainly be enough. Let’s look at the upcoming schedules for the teams who have not yet reached four wins.

Afghanistan: Netherlands, Australia, South Africa
Pakistan: Bangladesh, New Zealand, England
Sri Lanka: India, Bangladesh, New Zealand
Netherlands: Afghanistan, England, India
England: Australia, Netherlands, Pakistan
Bangladesh: Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Australia

Two wins would likely be enough for England, if other games largely go to form, but today’s game has made it more likely that the team in ninth place finishes with three wins in total. This is because Afghanistan play Netherlands. If Netherlands beat Afghanistan – not out of the question based on their performances so far – and Sri Lanka beat Bangladesh, then that would already see seven teams, not including England and Pakistan, reaching three wins, and net run rate would be decisive.

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Even two wins might be optimistic considering England’s struggles so far. Jos Buttler’s side will go into their game against Australia as significant underdogs. If they lose that, they will be formally out of the World Cup, and their game against the Netherlands could become a de facto Champions Trophy winner-takes-all clash. If England beat Netherlands, Netherlands lose to Afghanistan and India, England lose to Australia and Pakistan, and Bangladesh do not undergo a significant change in fortunes, then Bangladesh and one of England and Netherlands will fail to make the Champions Trophy.

On the other hand, if England lose that game, then they will either need to beat both of Australia and Pakistan, or beat one of them, and hope that one Pakistan and Sri Lanka fail to win another game. It looks likely that England need to beat Netherlands and, considering their net run rate, beat them handily to qualify for the 2025 Champions Trophy.