The top seven teams from the group stage of the World Cup, plus Pakistan as hosts, will qualify for the next edition of the competition. Following their fourth win of the tournament, Afghanistan are now clear of the pack along with Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and India, in fifth place with eight points (at present the magical qualification number) and two matches left to play.

Only Sri Lanka and one of Netherlands or England can join them on eight points, leaving the two teams behind them out of the running. Sri Lanka are currently on four points with two matches left to play and Netherlands are also on four points with two to play. England are on two points but have three to play, including one against the Netherlands, meaning they can reach eight points, but only if they beat the Netherlands, meaning one of those two teams can only finish on a maximum of six.

So regardless of what Afghanistan do now, they are through. That turns the attention to Sri Lanka, England, Netherlands and Bangladesh, two of whom will qualify. As already said, if two of those teams reach eight points that would complete the qualification, leaving Bangladesh and one of the Netherlands or England out of contention.

First, let’s look at what the nearest of the chasing pack, Sri Lanka, need. They still have to play Bangladesh and New Zealand, and two wins would secure their qualification. If they beat Bangladesh they would be out of their reach at the least, and would be very well placed to finish in the top eight, even if they then lose to New Zealand. Their NRR is currently the best of the chasing pack. While it is possible for both Netherlands and England to reach six points, that would require either England to beat both Australia and Pakistan – if Netherlands beat England – or Netherlands to beat India and England to beat one of those two, if England beat Netherlands. A win against New Zealand but not Bangladesh would keep them in reach of all three but still allow for an NRR contest.

Next, the Netherlands have two tough fixtures left against England and India. Again, if they win them both they will qualify regardless of what any other team does. If they beat England, that would strengthen their chances and weaken, but not eliminate, England’s. In that scenario, they would only have to rely on NRR if two of the following happen: England beat both of Australia and Pakistan; Bangladesh beat Sri Lanka and Australia; Sri Lanka beat Bangladesh or New Zealand.

Another comprehensive victory for Afghanistan 💪🇦🇫

They chase down their target with 111 balls remaining – the third-biggest margin of victory so far in the competition in terms of balls remaining.#CWC2023 #NEDvsAFG pic.twitter.com/jLszwMwgR9

— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) November 3, 2023

As for England, while they’re on two points at the moment, they are the only side in this discussion with three games left to play, which means they could still, in theory, reach eight points to qualify regardless of NRR. However, they currently sit outside of the qualification zone. Thus, they need to win at least one of their games to get within reach of the Netherlands and Sri Lanka on four points. Beating Netherlands would see them handily placed. Assuming Netherlands do not beat India and Bangladesh do not win both their games, it would then come down to NRR, with England well placed against those two teams.

If England reach six points by winning two of their games, they might not have to rely on NRR. Beating the Netherlands would be their best way of making this happen. If the Netherlands also lost to India, they would finish on four points. If Bangladesh lose just one of their remaining matches they would also not be able to reach six. Therefore, England would qualify.

Lastly, Bangladesh, who might be out of knockout reach but are still just within Champions Trophy qualification reach. They cannot, however, reach eight points, and if they lose both their remaining matches, they will not qualify. If they win one of their matches, they could have a chance to qualify on NRR. But, if two teams reach six points, they would then also have to win their other match to stand a chance of qualifying. If they only win one, that means they need at least two of the other chasers not to reach six points. If the match they lose is against their game against Sri Lanka, that would put Sri Lanka on six points and they would need both England and the Netherlands not to reach six points. Even then, they would need to rely on a superior NRR.