India and New Zealand will face off in the final match of Group A in the 2025 Champions Trophy – more than most other fixtures, the middle-over matchup in this match is likely to define the contest here.
In India's most recent ODI series, against England, they blew their opponents out of the water. Key to their three victories was the control of the middle overs – with both bat and ball.
Skipper Rohit Sharma had emphasised the same after the second ODI: "If you try to manage and squeeze in wickets in those middle overs, it gives you a chance to not worry so much about the death overs. When you look at this format, people talk about up front and the death, but the middle overs are very very crucial."
India's squad selection for the Champions Trophy has reflected the same. They have five spin-bowling options, most likely to be used in the middle overs, and have preferred Harshit Rana's older ball-suited pace bowling in the playing XI, to both Mohammed Siraj and Arshdeep Singh, who are arguably more effective with the new ball.
India have been restrictive in the middle-overs...
Against Bangladesh in their opening match, India went wicketless in overs 11-40 for the first time since the 2023 World Cup final. But that was off the back of a five-wicket Powerplay (which should have been six), and they missed at least one catch and one stumping chance in those 30 overs. Despite all this, it was still a supremely restrictive period, where just 126 runs were scored.
Overs split for India's bowling innings – Champions Trophy 2025
| Opponent | Overs 1-10 | Overs 11-40 | Overs 41-50 |
| Bangladesh | 39-5 | 126-0 | 63-5 |
| Pakistan | 52-2 | 131-3 | 58-5 |
Against Pakistan, India did not have the best Powerplay phase as Pakistan made it to 52-2, the second wicket coming in the 10th over when Imam-ul-Haq barbecued himself going for a quick single. But once again, India put the brakes on the scoring. In the next 23 overs, Mohammad Rizwan and Saud Shakeel scored just 98 runs – under four an over. Pakistan fell behind in the game, and the pressure was felt as they lost three wickets in the next four overs attempting to score quickly.
Even on a Dubai wicket that has been difficult to score on, India restricting their opponents to scoring at just a tick over four an over in the middle overs has proved invaluable to keeping them down to manageable scores – they completed both chases with minimum fuss, thanks also to a couple of solid Powerplay batting displays.
...but New Zealand are perhaps best-placed to counter them
New Zealand, meanwhile, have been highly effective with the bat in the middle overs, albeit on more suitable pitches for batting. Just as Rohit had mentioned India don't have to worry about the death overs with the ball if the middle is taken care of, the Kiwis have largely managed that with the bat so far.
Overs split for New Zealand's batting innings – Champions Trophy 2025
| Opponent | Overs 1-10 | Overs 11-40 | Overs 41-50 |
| Pakistan | 48-2 | 159-2 | 113-1 |
| Bangladesh | 54-2 | 154-2 | 32-1 (6.1) |
With the ball against Pakistan, they were helped in the middle overs by Fakhar Zaman's injury, as well as Pakistan's own sedate batting in a big chase. Against Bangladesh, it was a one-man show as Michael Bracewell ripped out the middle-order during his spell of 10 unbroken overs.
What makes the India-New Zealand clash particularly mouthwatering is this middle-overs face-off. In a way, the Black Caps are the best-equipped team in the competition to counter India's spin trio of Axar Patel, Ravindra Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav through the middle.
For one, New Zealand's likely middle-over batters have matched up extremely well with India's spinners in ODI cricket so far – since 2020, they average 96 and score 6.1 runs per over in overs 11-40 against them.
India spinners vs New Zealand batters in overs 11-40 of ODIs (since 2020)
| Daryl Mitchell | Kane Williamson | Rachin Ravindra | Tom Latham | Total | |
| Axar Patel | - | - | - | - | - |
| Ravindra Jadeja | 0-60 (11.2) | 0-25 (4.4) | 0-28 (4.5) | 1-16 (3.5) | 1-129 (24.4) |
| Kuldeep Yadav | 1-77 (10.4) | 0-18 (2.4) | 1-41 (5.1) | 0-23 (4.0) | 2-159 (22.3) |
| Total | 1-137 (22.0) | 0-43 (7.2) | 1-69 (10.0) | 1-49 (7.5) | 3-288 (47.1) |
These individual matchups are useful only to a certain point, though. For example, there is no prior data available against Axar, who is likely to bowl 10 overs. India might also decide to play Varun Chakravarthy over Kuldeep for the unfamiliarity he brings.
Another indicator of the Kiwis' prowess in the middle phase comes from their recent overall record.
In Daryl Mitchell, Kane Williamson and Tom Latham, New Zealand have three batters who are above-average at rotating strike, even when the boundary options may not be available. Over the past couple of years, Rachin Ravindra has given them an added dimension as an elite strike-rotator, as well as being a capable boundary hitter, in overs 11-40.
In Dubai, with large boundaries and a wicket where the ball is unlikely to come onto the bat, boundaries will likely be at a premium. The lower-risk option of ensuring singles and doubles through the middle phase, therefore, becomes that much more important at this venue.
Do India stick or twist with their bowling attack?
The New Zealand template will be evident – trust Devon Conway or Will Young and Ravindra to see off the Powerplay, keep a good tempo going through the middle overs with low-risk cricket and set a platform for Glenn Phillips to hit at the death.
It will be intriguing to see if India decide to change things up in their bowling attack. Off-spinner Washington Sundar might be in the frame for a game thanks to the left-handers in New Zealand's lineup (Potentially Conway, and Bracewell further down the order in addition to Ravindra and Latham).
One wonders if, given the Black Caps' strengths through the middle, India might want to shore up their Powerplay and/or death bowling with Arshdeep Singh in place of Harshit Rana. Pakistan did make 52-2 in the first 10 at this venue, and on better wickets in the home series in India, England managed 77-3, 75-0 and 84-2 in the first 10 overs. Bangladesh and Pakistan also made 68 and 53 at the death earlier in the Champions Trophy against India despite already being five down.
If these patterns continue, but against a side perhaps unlikely to be decimated or tied down through the middle, India could end up conceding far more than they bargained for. Equally, if they are able to get on top of New Zealand's batters, it is quite likely they will derail their opponents.
Either way, Sunday's clash promises to be a mouthwatering battle.
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