Why Mohammed Shami, India's back-from-the-dead ICC champion, is such a prolific bowler

If you’d seen visuals of Mohammed Shami from a month ago, a Champions Trophy five-for would have been far from the wishlist for India’s campaign opener. Shami’s knee was strapped, he was seemingly limping in his run-up. He hadn’t put on the India kit for well over a year, and he’d visibly put on some weight too, putting a question mark over his effectiveness.

The six months preceding it were Indian cricket’s typical soap opera, filled with conjecture and half-baked reports. From the limited footage of his comeback bid in domestic cricket, Shami appeared far from his best. Injured fast bowlers at 34 rarely make emphatic returns to the top level.

But if you’re Mohammed Shami, you’ve been doing this adversity-defying business for far too long now.

Shami’s ODI brilliance has so many levels to it.

Firstly, the sheer numbers

On Thursday, Shami became the fastest Indian to 200 ODI wickets, and the third-fastest overall – it might seem like a belated milestone for someone playing ODIs since 2013, but Shami has been infrequent in the format (and still so good).

He’s featured in 104 out of 251 ODIs India have played since his debut, yet still has the fifth-most ODI wickets by an India quick. In this period, no other India bowler has hit the 200-wicket mark, and only Mitchell Starc, Adil Rashid and Trent Boult have taken more wickets.

Among everyone with at least 200 ODI wickets ever, Shami has the best strike rate (25.4).

He has six five-fors in the format in just 104 innings: among all bowlers with more than five five-fors in ODIs, Shami’s innings to five-for ratio is 17.3, only behind Mitchell Starc (14.1). Among the others on that list, only Waqar Younis and Trent Boult have a sub-20 ratio.

ICC magic

That Shami is a World Cup great is an understatement, but the Bangladesh game was actually his Champions Trophy debut. Yet, he’s taken 60 wickets at 13.28 in the two competitions combined. That’s the most for any India player, bettering Zaheer Khan on Thursday.

Among all bowlers with at least ten innings in these two competitions, Shami has the best average (13.28) and the best strike rate (15.5).

He’s now taken five five-fors in all ICC events, that’s two more than Glenn McGrath, Starc and Mustafizur Rahman.

Why is he so good?

His greatness is not condition-specific

Firstly, Shami’s effectiveness is quite consistent across different conditions. His home and away averages are nearly identical: 24.89 versus 24.57. In neutral venues, that number goes down to 19.15. The split of four-fors is four, three and three respectively.

This, despite an ODI career made up of sporadic appearances. Since the start of 2020, he has played just 31 ODIs, 19 of which came in 2023. He played no ODIs in 2021 and three in 2022.

Yet, 2023 was his best year ever, taking 43 wickets at 16.46. Another World Cup year four years before that was his second-best, with 42 wickets at 22.64.

Bouncing back from injuries

Which takes us to the next bit, injuries. Shami has had a long list of injuries, but has still managed to switch immediately back to his brilliant self. At the 2015 World Cup, he finished as the fourth-highest wicket-taker while playing through left knee pain.

Two years later, he returned for the Champions Trophy, but did not play a game because of a long-standing shoulder issue. He effectively played five ODIs between the end of the 2015 World Cup and the start of 2019, yet ended up having a brilliant year.

A further four years later, Shami had a dream World Cup, but ended up injuring his ankle. A lengthy rehabilitation followed: he looked slower and bulkier in training, and had serious self-doubts if he’d ever play for India again. Yet, there he was in Dubai on Thursday, breaking new records.

Effective in different phases

Arguably, Shami is at his best as a first-change bowler: he averages 18.45 in 22 innings, and primarily took up the same role during the 2023 World Cup, behind Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj. But India has changed that around regularly through his career.

Before his 2023 World Cup stints as first-change, Shami had last taken that position back in 2019, after that year’s World Cup. Perhaps, he was as good as he was in the tournament because of that role, but India did not think of carrying it into the final somehow.

The numbers do suggest why: he’s great with the new ball too.

As a new-ball bowler, Shami’s average (25.63) is comparable to Dale Steyn, Waqar and Shaheen Shah Afridi, and bettered by only Bumrah among India bowlers.

One of Shami’s best attributes is his ability to hit the deck with seam, getting movement off the pitch either way. It also helps him get extra lift, something which he manages even with a semi-new ball. About 66 per cent of his batters are top-order batters, and between overs 11-20, he averages 17.7. Exactly 90 of his dismissals have been to batters with scores between 0 and 9.

Since his debut, he has taken the most wickets at the death (overs 41-50) with a 300-ball cutoff. While he’s been slightly expensive (7.67), he’s good at picking wickets with judicious use of the yorker and cutters. Shami’s rarely seen trying out the fancier versions – such as the back-of-the-hand slower ball or the knuckle ball – but still finds a way to clean up lineups.

His strike-rate in the same period – 14.28 – is better than the likes of Bumrah, Starc and Mustafizur.

Shami in different positions:

How far can he go?

It all depends on his battered knees and ankles, really. At this stage, it should really be one match at a time. With Jasprit Bumrah absent, Shami has a much bigger role, carrying together a much-younger pace attack along. The ODI World Cup is two years away, probably too far for his weary limbs. He played T20Is early this year, a gentler format for ageing quicks. In Tests, India would want to take him as far as they can.

If he decides to ease up his future, this tournament might mark the end of his ODI journey. Any way you look at it, it’s been an incredible one.

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