India held a distinct advantage at the 2025 Champions Trophy league stage and barely broke a sweat. If the surface in Dubai assists spin, it may, however – somewhat counterintuitively – end up assisting Australia.
“It’s not like we know what's going to happen on these pitches,” said Indian captain Rohit Sharma at the pre-match press conference ahead of the semi-final against Australia. “We don’t know which pitch will be used in the semi-final, but whatever it is, we will have to adapt and see how it goes. And it’s not our home either: this is Dubai. We don’t play so many matches here, it’s new for us as well."
It is difficult to argue with that. At the same time, it is must be remembered that just ahead of the tournament, India left out Yashasvi Jaiswal, their reserve opener who has made his mark in the two other formats, for Varun Chakravarthy when they already had four spinners in the squad.
Dubai might not be a home venue for India. They might have no control over the pitches. At the same time, it cannot be denied that they had picked Varun because they had expected Dubai, the only venue they would play at here, to assist spin – and assist spin it did.
In this 2025 Champions Trophy, spinners have averaged in excess of 40 in each of the three Pakistan venues and have conceded at least 4.8 an over. For Dubai, the numbers read 31.90 and 4.50. What is more, the average went from 49.50 in India-Bangladesh to 30.00 in India-Pakistan to 26.72 in India-New Zealand.
Thus, not only has Dubai been the most spin-friendly of venues but it has also become more spin-friendly with every match. One can see why, ahead of the New Zealand match, India brought in Varun for seamer Harshit Rana: they ended up bowling 37.3 overs of spin.
It is not unreasonable to expect a similar pitch in the semi-final against Australia, a team that showed up without three frontline fast bowlers and three top-quality all-rounders.
Giving Australia a fifth bowler
Australia have been fortunate in this tournament. Two of their matches were washed out (though they were favourites when the Afghanistan match stopped). In the other, they had to set a tournament record to beat England.
One can, of course, add the usual cliche of knockout matches often bringing the best out of Australia. The counterpoint can be Australia’s sub-par record in the Champions Trophy, where they have won two titles but have little else to show otherwise.
Barring fast bowlers, however, Australia are prepared for Dubai. Few in the world play spin better than Steve Smith. Glenn Maxwell is, well, Glenn Maxwell. Alex Carey and Josh Inglis demonstrated their hitting abilities against England. And then, there is Travis Head, India’s arch nemesis.
Is this line-up stronger than Rohit, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul, and three all-rounders in these conditions? Probably not. But then, Australia do have more to offer.
While the fast bowlers are missing, Australia do have Adam Zampa, one of the greatest spinners in the history of limited-overs cricket. There are the others too. It is not clear who will play in the end. Even if they leave out Tanveer Sangha, Australia will still have Head, Maxwell, and – if he plays – Cooper Connolly to back Zampa.
Of course, this is nowhere close to the might of the Indian spin attack. But that is the thing with bowler-friendly surfaces: it reduces the gap between the very good and the great. On a turner, Head, Maxwell, and Connolly may be able to get the odd one to turn, bounce, spit... in other words, pose problems they would otherwise not have had on flat wickets.
India have six bowlers and Australia four. On a turning track, Australia may have a fifth, or even a sixth bowler.
The shadow looms
If this sounds outlandish, let us cast our minds back to the 2023 World Cup, where India stormed into the final after scores of 357-8, 326-5, 410-4, 397-4 in their last four games while batting first. Three of their five chases were completed at quicker than 6.25 an over and one more at 5.70. India were scoring runs for fun in that World Cup. As a result, they won ten one-sided games.
The Indian batting unit are an exceptional side when the conditions assist batting. Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Shreyas, Rahul boast of ridiculous ODI numbers. Axar Patel is one of their best players of spin. This is a unit that can score big and score quick at the same time. A difficult pitch reduces that advantage.
Three quick wickets in the World Cup final exposed that. All of a sudden, Kohli and Rahul found themselves in a situation where they could not take afford to take risks. Pat Cummins cut down the scoring areas. Runs stopped. Overs passed by. The match was lost.
Fifteen months later, India have addressed that team combination by adding an all-rounder to the mix. If Varun plays, the tail will begin at nine, not eight. That gives them some cushion.
But Dubai has also assisted seam. Ben Dwarshuis has been among the wickets. Nathan Ellis can be difficult to score off. Spencer Johnson is quick. Three early wickets a la the World Cup final is not unlikely. It happened against New Zealand but India’s batters bailed them out. On this surface, they may not be able to a second time in a row.
That is precisely why a turning track may reduce India’s advantage. They would have been favourites on a flat track. They still are... just not as much.
