New Zealand have qualified for the semi-finals of all but two of the last eight white-ball ICC events and the Champions Trophy could be the chance for them to finally break the jinx.
New Zealand’s disastrous campaign in the 2024 T20 World Cup in the Caribbean is now a thing of the past, as they gear up for the Champions Trophy with renewed optimism. The ODI format suits their strengths better, and their recent experience in Pakistan, where they have played 11 ODIs since the start of 2020, gives them a significant edge. No other touring team has played more than three in the country in this period, and New Zealand will be eager to maximise this advantage in the Champions Trophy.
A batting line-up with all bases covered
New Zealand will once again be relying on their main man, Kane Williamson. He has played only three ODIs since the World Cup ended but he showed little signs of rust, making an unbeaten 133 against South Africa in the tri-series, which came after a calm 58 in the opener against Pakistan. Both knocks were contrasting in nature: Against Pakistan, the top-order batters were going after their shots, and Williamson dropped anchor with an innings at a strike rate of 65.16. In the next game, he hit two sixes in his 113-ball knock - only the second time since 2019 that he has hit two maximums in an ODI innings.
Devon Conway, Rachin Ravindra and Daryl Mitchell have proven to be adept at countering spin, which could be a massive factor in their group games against India and Bangladesh. While Pakistan, the other team in their group, have just one specialist spinner in their squad, India will go in with a spin-heavy attack in Dubai. New Zealand's batting strength against the spinners versus India's failures against the same could be what decides that matchup.
Glenn Phillips, who has made less than 1,000 ODI runs and averages 37.40 may not have overwhelming numbers backing his prowess, but he is a game-changer, having the ability to play quick, impactful knocks down the order. He has a strike rate of 110.2 against pace in the format, hitting 21 sixes against them in 28 innings, making him an ideal finisher.
Effective spinners, fast quicks and additional batting depth
Skipper Mitchell Santner is going through an excellent run of late and will play a pivotal role once again. He not only stifles the batters in the middle overs but is also extremely miserly in the powerplay where he has an economy rate of 4.54. Michael Bracewell can also be handy upfront, and with New Zealand struggling with the fitness of their first-choice quicks, having plenty of spin-bowling options in the first ten overs will be an added boost. Bracewell picked up five wickets in the recent tri-series, two of which came in the powerplay, where he conceded just four runs in the two overs that he bowled. Otherwise, he averages 9.8 in the phase, sending down a whopping 59 per cent of dot balls.
Phillips and Rachin are also effective part-time spinners and were recently used against Pakistan on a tacky surface to further dent the run rate. All four spinners also have secondary skills, which makes New Zealand extremely well-balanced. They have eight batting options and seven bowling options, which will hold them in good stead across the two countries that they will play in.
New Zealand’s pace attack could be a cause of concern though, with plenty of injury issues and inexperienced quicks. However, Will O’Rourke, the leading wicket-taker in the tri-series, can bowl over 150 clicks an hour. His pace and height, almost similar to Kyle Jamieson’s, will bring back nightmares for the Indians. Lockie Ferguson will be a big miss for the Black Caps, increasing the responsibility on the shoulders of Matt Henry, who has a quietly phenomenal ODI record (155 wickets from 85 ODIs) and has only gone from strength to strength as a fast bowler across formats in the last few years.
League games in both countries- an advantage?
Realistically, New Zealand will be competing with India and Pakistan for the semi-final spot in the group. India will once again be strong contenders but they have limited ODI exposure since the 2023 World Cup ended. The senior players in the top order are particularly vulnerable against pace, which could be where New Zealand make in-roads against them. The match will also be in Dubai and India have been found out against spinners in the not-so-distant past, be it unravelling against Sri Lanka last year or going into a shell against Australia on a sluggish wicket in the World Cup final.
Pakistan are unpredictable - their weaknesses could well convert into strengths the next day - but New Zealand will take confidence from their twin wins against them in the tri-series.
New Zealand will also be one of two teams to play their league games in both UAE and Pakistan in the Champions Trophy, which will give them prior knowledge of conditions in both countries before the knockouts. Their semis fixture will be in Lahore but the final will either be in Lahore or Dubai, depending on the opposition they play. If the summit clash is against India, New Zealand will further have the psychological edge, having had the upper hand against them in white-ball ICC events as well as Test matches of late.
New Zealand’s failure to win a major limited-overs title despite coming close, however, will be the hurdle they will need to overcome for themselves.
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