The blockbuster India-New Zealand Champions Trophy final will be played on Sunday (March 9) in Dubai. Here are the key plot points that will decide the match.
Presence/absence of Matt Henry with new ball
Henry has been the highest wicket-taker in the 2025 Champions Trophy with 10 wickets from four games. He also has a great record against India and has been at the peak of his powers as a seam bowler. However, the senior New Zealand quick suffered a shoulder injury while fielding during the semi-final against South Africa and is uncertain for the final.
New Zealand have two other tall and high-quality seamers in Kyle Jamieson and Will O'Rourke, as well as backup in the form of Jacob Duffy and Nathan Smith. But if Henry is not fit for the final, it would be a huge loss for the BlackCaps.
O'Rourke is not a regular with the new ball and Smith and Duffy are a notch below Henry in terms of quality. Both India openers, Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill, have been dismissed twice by Henry in ODIs and have averages of 29.50 and 31 against him. His absence would free them psychologically and if either of them are able to get stuck into the New Zealand bowlers in the powerplay, it might get difficult for them to bring the game back.
| Matt Henry vs India batters in ODIs | |||||||
| Batter | Overs | Runs | Wickets | Econ | Avg | SR | Dot% |
| Virat Kohli | 11.1 | 57 | 2 | 5.1 | 28.5 | 33.5 | 53.7 |
| Shubman Gill | 13.3 | 63 | 2 | 4.67 | 31.5 | 40.5 | 71.6 |
| Rohit Sharma | 9.5 | 59 | 2 | 6 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 66.1 |
| Ravindra Jadeja | 2.4 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 37.5 |
| KL Rahul | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 33.3 |
| Hardik Pandya | 4.4 | 27 | 1 | 5.79 | 27 | 28 | 60.7 |
| Shreyas Iyer | 2.5 | 14 | 0 | 4.94 | - | - | 52.9 |
| Axar Patel | 1.3 | 2 | 0 | 1.33 | - | - | 77.8 |
How India's middle order deals with the Santner-Bracewell combo
Mitchell Santner has been a class apart with the ball. The New Zealand captain has taken 16 wickets from 10 ODIs this year at an economy of 4.48. He also had a memorable Test match against India in Pune last year, picking 13 wickets. On the sluggish Dubai surface, his loopy left-armers would pose the biggest threat to the Indian batting order, particularly the right-handers.
Since 2023, he has dismissed Virat Kohli and KL Rahul twice each conceding just 37 and 2 runs against them respectively. Rohit and Gill have had superior records against him in this period, striking at 125 and 116.6 respectively, but scoring at that rate would be extremely tough in Dubai, and if they try, it would open up more wicket-taking avenues for Santner.
Also read: Six tactical calls that defined the New Zealand v South Africa semi-final
While Santner's quality has been apparent, New Zealand's second spinner, Michael Bracewell has quietly slipped under the radar. This year, he has taken 12 wickets from eight ODIs at an economy of 4.36, which is excetional for any bowler let alone an off-spinner in the modern era. Even right-hand batters have struggled to attack him as Bracewell has excelled in bowling defensive lengths against them.
Whether the Indian right-handers, particularly Gill, Rohit, and Shreyas Iyer are able to take Bracewell down and whether they are able to safely negotiate Santner will have a large bearing on the result of the game.
| Santner & Bracewell bowling in CT 2025 | ||
| Mitchell Santner | Michael Bracewell | |
| vs Pakistan | 10-0-66-3 | 10-1-38-1 |
| vs Bangladesh | 10-1-44-0 | 10-0-26-4 |
| vs India | 10-1-41-1 | 9-0-56-0 |
| vs South Africa | 10-0-43-3 | 10-0-53-1 |
Can India get Ravindra early again?
Rachin Ravindra has been in a rich vein of form. Not just in terms of quantity of runs scored, but also quality of runs scored. He's currently second on the list of top run-getters, just one behind Ben Duckett's 227. Ravindra has already scored two hundreds in the three games he has played in Champions Trophy 2025, with his only failure coming against India in Dubai. Hardik Pandya got the left-hander to upper cut a short ball to deep third then, allowing their spinners to take control of the middle overs.
Ravindra is an excellent player of spin, as he displayed in the Test series in India last year. How much pressure India's spinners are able to exert on the New Zealand middle order will depend a lot on how quickly they are able to get rid of Ravindra.
How NZ batters tackle the Indian spin-quartet
Varun Chakravarthy made a record-breaking entry to the 2025 Champions Trophy the last time these two teams met, picking 5-42. Two days ahead of the final, New Zealand coach Gary Stead conceded that Chakravarthy is someone they'll have to have precise plans against.
"He’s a class bowler, and showed his skills against us last time and he’s a big threat in the game. So we’ll be putting our thinking caps on around how we nullify that and how we can still score runs against him," Stead said in a press conference.
Not only will New Zealand have to find a way to counter Chakravarthy's variations and guile, they'll also have to be find ways to score against the three other spinners in the XI - Axar, Ravindra Jadeja, and Kuldeep Yadav.
Last Sunday, New Zealand crawled from 44-1 to 93-2 between overs 11-25, scoring 49 runs in 15 overs despite having Williamson and Daryl Mitchell at the crease. India bowled only one over of pace after the sixth over. New Zealand cannot allow the Indian spinners to dictate terms like that in the final. They'll have to find ways to be proactive, possibly promoting the left-handed Tom Latham ahead of Mitchell to counter the twin left-arm orthodox spinners and trying and putting pressure on them early in their spells. If they fail to do so and expose their finishers in Phillips and Bracewell to spin in the middle overs, the script might turn out to be similar to what it was last week.
Fitness and fielding efficiency on a hot day
Temperatures are expected to reach 34 degrees Celsius in Dubai during the final. Both India and New Zealand can boast of some of the fittest players and finest fielders in world cricket. How they (and the less athletic ones) cope with the weather will play a big role in the game.
Watch: 'Leaves Virat stunned' - Phillips plucks flying blinder off-full blooded Kohli cut as India collapse
Converting the ones into twos as a batting side, the twos into ones as the fielding side, taking every half chance presented, powering through 100 overs of cricket without cramping up and letting the efficiency drop would be the one-percenters that would add up and make a big difference in the final.
