Five areas where the India vs Australia Champions Trophy semi-final will be won or lost

India vs Australia in a high-stakes ICC ODI knockout - sounds familiar, doesn’t it? The stage is set once again, this time in Dubai on Tuesday, for a clash that promises fireworks. On the surface, it seems straightforward, with an almost full-strength Indian side, well-versed in these conditions, taking on a depleted Australian squad. But if history has taught us anything, it’s that Australia thrive when the pressure is at its peak. Expect them to throw everything they’ve got.

Rohit Sharma vs the new, moving ball

India skipper Rohit Sharma has been at his fearless best in the first ten overs of ODIs since the 2023 World Cup, striking at 136.8 in 20 innings and hitting as many as 37 sixes in the powerplay. It has given India a handy headstart, especially on tough wickets where run-scoring becomes difficult through the middle overs. However, it is no secret that Rohit also struggles against the moving ball early on and this is where Australia could strike early.

The opener’s declining footwork, evident in Test cricket of late, has been at the crux of it. At his peak, Rohit had a rock-solid defence against pace, built on sharp judgment and precise footwork. But in the past year, his technique has faltered, with misaligned movements and poor weight transfer, that have made him vulnerable. This year, in six ODIs, Rohit has fallen in the powerplay five times, thrice to the moving ball. Even in the Champions Trophy, the new ball has troubled Rohit, who has scores of 41, 20 and 15 in the tournament.

Against Pakistan, up against his familiar nemesis Shaheen Afridi, Rohit failed to play out a ripping inswinging yorker. It was the fourth time Shaheen dismissed him in white-ball cricket in the first ten overs, and Australia will be keen to follow the template and break the game open early.

Travis Head vs India

Well, what do we say about this? With memories of 19th November etched firmly in our heads, let’s also look at the other instances when he has managed to hurt the Indians - the 2023 World Test Championship final and the fine hundred in the pink-ball Test in Adelaide.

Head’s eyes go dreamy every time he envisions playing against his much-loved opponents, and to add an extra dimension to the love story, he seems to relish playing against a team captained by Rohit Sharma. In 11 games across formats, Head has scored four hundreds at an average of 68.20 when Rohit has led India; without him, it drops to 29.60. Make it make sense.

He’s good against both pace and spin, and would be eyeing to do an encore.

Adam Zampa vs Kohli

Leg-spinners have increasingly troubled Virat Kohli in ODIs, exposing a rare chink in his otherwise formidable batting. Once dominant against them, averaging a towering 72.60 until 2020, his numbers have taken a hit, dipping to 41.00 since then. During the recent ODI series against England, it was Adil Rashid who posed plenty of problems for the No.3. Kohli played two games and fell to him both times, playing out as many as 10 dots in the 14 balls that he faced against him. Last year, leg-spinner Jeffrey Vandersay had the upper hand against Kohli and the nagging issues were evident against Pakistan as he continuously tried to stay on the backfoot against Abrar Ahmed.

The trend is clear, and Australia have just the right man to exploit it. Adam Zampa has sent him back five times in ODIs. While Kohli still scores at a brisk strike rate against the leggie, Zampa has managed to have the last laugh often enough.

Zampa has also troubled the other India middle-order batters - KL Rahul (four dismissals, average of 38.5), Hardik Pandya (four dismissals, average of 25) and even Shreyas Iyer (two dismissals, average of 28). Axar Patel could be the key in this match-up.

India’s spinners vs Australia’s mainstays in the middle overs

India fielded four spinners against New Zealand and they are likely to continue with the same combination in the semi-final as well. New Zealand, who have batters that are adept at handling spin, were only able to score 109-5 in 29 overs of spin between overs 11-40, striking at 62.64 against them.

This is where India’s spinners could wrestle control of the game, especially against Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne. Since the 2023 World Cup, Smith averages 40.71 against all types of spin but has a strike rate of 83.09 against them in 14 innings. Labuschage, on the other hand, averages 33 and strikes even lower - 77.28. They have been dismissed seven and 10 times, respectively in this period, leaving Australia’s middle-order prone to falling behind in the game.

Australia could play around with their batting order to negate this. Glenn Maxwell, Alex Carey and Josh Inglis have excelled against the spinners in this period. None of them is afraid to play their shots either and promoting any one (or more) of them could break the Smith-Labuschagne axis. It will, at least, force the Indian spinners to think on their feet.

India vs Australia’s death overs supremacy

If Australia manage to navigate through the middle overs without many casualties, they will back themselves to take the game away from India in the last ten overs.

Since the start of 2024, Australia have a death overs strike rate of 143.72, better than every other team that has played an ODI in this period. Leading the charge for them has been Inglis, who has also hit as many as five sixes in the last ten overs of an ODI since 2024. Maxwell (strike rate of 200) and Carey (132.86) have also been lethal, with the three smashing 10 sixes combined.

How they fare against India’s spinners with an extra fielder on the ropes at a venue that has longer boundaries, could define which way the game swings.

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