New Zealand got off to a great start at the 2025 Champions Trophy, thrashing defending champions and co-hosts Pakistan by 60 runs in the tournament opener at Karachi. This has greatly affected Pakistan’s chances of qualification for the semi-final.
The 60-run defeat has left Pakistan not only with no points after their first game, but also with a net run rate of -1.2. From here, they will have their work cut out if they are to finish in the top two in Group A and qualify for the semi-final.
Remaining matches in Group A
India v Bangladesh: Dubai, February 20
India v Pakistan: Dubai, February 23
Bangladesh v New Zealand: Rawalpindi, February 24
Pakistan v Bangladesh: Rawalpindi, February 27
India v New Zealand: Dubai, March 2
Assuming no points are shared in any match, there are several ways in which a four-team round-robin league can finish. In each case, Pakistan have a way forward.
Pakistan’s qualification combination 1: 3-2-1-0
In other words, one team wins three games, one wins two, one wins one, one wins none. If this happens, Pakistan cannot win three, so their best bet is to beat India and Bangladesh. Thus, New Zealand have to win their two remaining games as well. If both of these scenarios happen, the outcome of India-Bangladesh will become irrelevant.
Also read: Why Pakistan weren't allowed a runner for injured Fakhar Zaman v New Zealand
Pakistan’s qualification combination 2: 2-2-2-0
Three teams win two games each, the fourth wins nothing. Yet again, Pakistan have to win both their games, while New Zealand have to lose one match. Whoever beats them will have to win their other match as well. Once all this happens, Pakistan will have to finish in top to in terms of net run rate.
Pakistan’s qualification combination 3: 2-2-1-1
Similar to the previous one, but in this case, New Zealand need not win two games. However, Pakistan still have to win both their remaining games. If they do that and the win combination is indeed as above, the net run rate will become redundant (other than to determine who finishes on top).
Pakistan’s qualification combination 4: 3-1-1-1
This is the only combination where Pakistan can afford to lose one more game. There are two ways in which this can happen.
One, New Zealand win all their matches, while Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India form a “cycle” (each team beats one team and loses to the other). Alternately, one of India and Bangladesh can win all their games, while the other forms a “cycle” with Pakistan and New Zealand.
Whichever it is, Pakistan will have to secure the best net run rate of the three sides tied on one win.
