Pakistan's hopes of qualification for the 2025 Champions Trophy semi-finals took a hit after their very first game, which ended in a 60-run loss to New Zealand. Here's how they can still make it, though.
In a short tournament like the Champions Trophy, which has only three group stage matches, even a single loss can put a side in serious danger of elimination.
Pakistan took a hit on two counts – one, they lost. Two, they lost by 60 runs. It is not a definitive margin, and could have been worse, but still remains a situation difficult to salvage.
Match 1, Pakistan vs New Zealand
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India's victory over Bangladesh has only made Pakistan's chances of qualification slimmer – it means that now, the hosts' qualification is no longer in their own hands.
Even if they beat India and Bangladesh in their remaining fixtures, Pakistan could be knocked out on net run rate if New Zealand defeat Bangladesh, and India beat New Zealand in the final group match.
Scenario 1: PAK, IND, NZ end up on two wins each
The first two results required for this to unfold are Pakistan beating India, and New Zealand beating Bangladesh. A Pakistan win by 40 runs, for example, depending on the final scores, will bring their net run rate almost level with India's, around the range of -0.2.
New Zealand's net run rate will drop from +1.2 if they beat Bangladesh by fewer than 60 runs (for reference, a 40-run win would put it at around +1.0).
Pakistan will then have to defeat Bangladesh by a decent margin – ideally, the margins of victory over India and Bangladesh combined should be roughly 120 runs (the equivalent number of deliveries remaining in case of a chase is approximately 100 across both matches).
The issue here from Pakistan's perspective is that since India v New Zealand is the final group match, there will be a "middle ground" – a margin of victory for India, which sends both them and New Zealand through, at Pakistan's expense.
For example, if Pakistan beat India and New Zealand beat Bangladesh by a similar margin, then New Zealand can afford to lose by roughly 69 runs if Pakistan beat Bangladesh by 50 runs, 64 if Pakistan win by 55, and so on (all only approximate figures at this stage).
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Scenario 2: PAK end up with only one win
If Pakistan lose to India, they will be eliminated before their final group game if New Zealand defeat Bangladesh, as they are expected to.
In the event that Bangladesh secure a surprise win over the Black Caps, however, Pakistan can sneak through if the following results take place:
- they beat Bangladesh by roughly 50 runs morethan the margin of their loss to India
- New Zealand lose by roughly 70 runs or more to Bangladesh and India, combined
Once again though, New Zealand still have a good chance of going through even with a loss to India. This is arguably even more dangerous for Pakistan, as in this scenario, India will have little incentive to even win the match, apart from securing a 100 per cent record in the group stage.
The biggest stumbling block for Pakistan at the moment is that emotionally-charged fixture against India on February 23 – a match they are nowhere near favourites for. An improbable win will not guarantee anything, but a loss puts them on the very brink of elimination.
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