England lost their opening match of the Champions Trophy against Australia on Saturday (February 22). Here's what they need to qualify for the tournament semi-finals.
In Lahore on Saturday, England rode on Ben Duckett's 165, the highest individual score in the Champions Trophy, to post 351-8 – the tournament's highest-ever total. However, it was chased down by Australia with some ease in the end, Josh Inglis the hero for his unbeaten century.
Match 4, Australia vs England
vs
- Ball by ball Over
Australia completed the chase with 15 balls to spare, a large margin in a high-scoring match. It leaves England's hopes of making the semi-finals as one of the top two teams in the group, far more uncertain now. Here are the scenarios that could unfold from here on in.
How can England guarantee qualification?
To begin with, this is not entirely in their hands. But in order to have a shot at qualifying without depending on net run rate, England will have to defeat Afghanistan in their next match, and beat South Africa in the final match of Group B.
If those two results are satisfied, England will go through as long as the following results take place in the two non-England fixtures.
| Match winners | ||
| AUS v SA | AFG v AUS | England's final position |
| AUS | AFG | 1st/2nd |
| AUS | AUS | 2nd |
| SA | AFG | 1st/2nd |
This leaves England with a solid chance of qualifying if they win their two matches. But that alone will not be enough as wins for South Africa over Australia, and Australia over Afghanistan instead would leave England, Australia and South Africa level on points, bringing qualification down to net run rate (more on that to follow).
How could England be directly eliminated?
If England lose both of their remaining matches, they will finish bottom of the group irrespective of other results. If they win only one match, the following sets of results will send them out.
| Match winners | ||||
| AUS v SA | AFG v ENG | AFG v AUS | ENG v SA | England's final position |
| AUS | AFG | AFG | ENG | 3rd/4th |
| SA | AFG | AFG | ENG | 3rd/4th |
| AUS | ENG | AFG | SA | 3rd/4th |
| SA | AFG | AUS | ENG | 3rd/4th |
| AUS | ENG | AUS | SA | 3rd |
| SA | ENG | AUS | SA | 3rd |
Net run rate swings: What are England's margins?
As far as England are concerned, qualifying via net run rate now becomes tricky business, as they will be stuck in a three-way tie – either for 1st/2nd/3rd, or 2nd/3rd/4th. The following sets of results show these possibilities.
| Match winners | ||||
| AUS v SA | AFG v ENG | AFG v AUS | ENG v SA | England's final position |
| AUS | AFG | AUS | ENG | 2nd/3rd/4th |
| SA | ENG | AUS | ENG | 1st/2nd/3rd |
| SA | ENG | AFG | SA | 2nd/3rd/4th |
The first of these puts England level on points with South Africa and Afghanistan, with Australia qualifying as group winners. In this case, England will have lost to Afghanistan. In order for England to make it through, the combined margin of South Africa's losses will have to be roughly 80 runs more than the margin of England's loss to Afghanistan.
The second set of results here is where things get interesting. If, for example, South Africa beat Australia and England beat Afghanistan by similar margins, then England and South Africa can have a mutually beneficial result in the final match – where England win by roughly 20 runs more than Australia's victory margin over Afghanistan.
However, the higher Australia's margin of victory over Afghanistan is, the more unlikely a mutually beneficial result becomes. Instead, that match could end up as a shootout between the two. England's chances would also be improved by heavier victories for them over Afghanistan, and/or South Africa over Australia.
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The final set of results here requires both Afghanistan and South Africa to beat Australia, and England to beat Afghanistan. If these take place, then England's victory margin over Afghanistan needs to be higher than the combined margin of Australia's losses.
For example, if Australia lose by 15 and 5 runs respectively, England will need to have defeated Afghanistan by more than 20 runs in order to afford a loss to South Africa. The greater the win, the greater the cushion. If, for example, they beat Afghanistan by around 35 runs, they can afford a 10-run loss to South Africa, and so on.
In all these cases, England have the crucial advantage of playing last, meaning when they head into the game against South Africa, they will know exactly what they need to do to qualify. In a tournament where one loss can eliminate a team, and that loss has already come in the very first game, that is about as good a situation as any team could hope for.
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