South Africa have virtually qualified for the 2025 Champions Trophy semi-finals, but there is the slightest chance that a big loss against England could send them out.
The Proteas won their first match of the tournament against Afghanistan in some style, beating them by 107 runs in Karachi a week ago. Their next game against Australia was abandoned thanks to incessant rain, leaving them on three points from two matches.
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A second washout in Group B, between Afghanistan and Australia now means that South Africa are level on points with Afghanistan. They have one more match to play, against England on March 1.
Match 10, Afghanistan vs Australia
vs
- Ball by ball Over
As things stand, South Africa are second in the table thanks to a superior net run rate to Afghanistan. Theoretically, a heavy loss to England could send that below Afghanistan's, dumping them out of the tournament. But what is that margin?
The net run rate swing South Africa need to avoid
South Africa's net run rate is +2.140, compared to Afghanistan's -0.990. If they bat second, South Africa would only need to get within 206 runs of England's score in order to qualify for the semi-finals, as laid out in the following table. Basically, South Africa only need to avoid losing by 207 runs or more.
| If England score... | ...South Africa need to score |
| 200 | 0 |
| 207 | 1 |
| 250 | 44 |
| 300 | 94 |
| 350 | 144 |
| 400 | 194 |
| 450 | 244 |
| 500 | 294 |
If South Africa bat first, they can secure semi-final qualification as long as England do not chase down their total within roughly 20-25 overs, with a few exact numbers provided as a guide below.
| If South Africa score... | ...they need to bowl at least |
| 300 | 21.1 overs |
| 325 | 22.2 overs |
| 350 | 23.2 overs |
| 375 | 24.1 overs |
| 400 | 24.5 overs |
What if there is a rain-shortened match?
In case the match is affected by rain, the allowed margin of loss for South Africa comes down, but only slightly. The following table provides a rough outline of the margins they need to avoid in each case. Exact figures depend on the exact match scores.
| If the match is reduced to... | ...South Africa can lose by |
| 20 overs | 176 runs |
| 25 overs | 181 runs |
| 30 overs | 186 runs |
| 35 overs | 191 runs |
| 40 overs | 196 runs |
| 45 overs | 201 runs |
Similarly, if South Africa bat first, they will have to ensure England do not chase their target in roughly half the allotted overs, in order to qualify.
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