Pakistan are already on the back foot in the Champions Trophy, having lost their opening game heavily to New Zealand. The resulting dent to their NRR means that even if they win their next two matches, they could be facing an uphill battle to qualify for the semi-finals.
Pakistan lost to New Zealand by 60 runs on Wednesday (February 19), meaning they sit bottom of Group A after one round of matches with an NRR of -1.200. The situation from now that means they will be most likely to go through to the knockout stage of the tournament, is if they win both of their next matches, against Bangladesh and India.
Not only will they have to win both of those matches, but they will have to win them by as big a margin as possible in order to make up their NRR deficit. Likely the most challenging part of that will be their clash against India on Sunday (February 23).
Pakistan have a net run rate of -1.2 following their 60-run defeat to New Zealand.
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) February 19, 2025
Here's what they need if they are to finish in the top two of Group A and make the semi-final ➡️ https://t.co/5qnTEnJ0c5 pic.twitter.com/9VrS64rngJ
Pakistan need to win both remaining games, but even that may not be enough
The final game of Group A, India v New Zealand is likely to decide who will advance to the semi-finals. If Pakistan win both their remaining matches, and New Zealand beat Bangladesh, that final match will be crucial.
At that point New Zealand will be on four points, equal to Pakistan, with their NRR likely strong enough to carry them through even if they lose to India. India meanwhile, will need to win the match in order to qualify. Thus, with New Zealand not having a strong incentive to win the game and India in a must-win scenario, an India win could knock Pakistan out.
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If India did win in those circumstances, all three sides would finish the group stage on equal points, and Pakistan would have to make sure they beat Bangladesh by a big margin, and beat India by a big margin to overcome their nearest NRR rivals. They would also have to rely on India not beating New Zealand by too great a margin.
Whether they win one or two, India v New Zealand could decide their fate
There's also another scenario where the India v New Zealand fixture could knock Pakistan out. If Pakistan lose to India but beat Bangladesh, they will finish the group stage with one win on two points. If this is the case, they will need New Zealand to lose to Bangladesh so that they go into their final clash with India also on one win.
Also read: The results and net run rate swing Pakistan need to qualify for Champions Trophy semi-finals
However, a mutually beneficial result could also come into play here. India would already be through to the semi-finals in that scenario, on four points compared to two each for New Zealand, Bangladesh and Pakistan. This scenario would leave them with little incentive to win the game, while New Zealand would then be in a must-win position.
If New Zealand did win, that would automatically knock Pakistan out of the tournament. If they lose, Pakistan could still be in with a shout of qualification on NRR, although they would likely have to win bigger against Bangladesh than in the first scenario, lose narrowly to India, and hope New Zealand also lose heavily to Bangladesh and India.
The India v New Zealand potential Group A decider will take place in Dubai on Sunday, March 2.
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