England's Champions Trophy exit at the hands of Afghanistan has extended a particularly poor run of form in the ODI format for the 2019 World Champions. Could they be in danger of not qualifying automatically for the 2027 World Cup?
Jos Buttler's side suffered an eight-run loss in Lahore, slumping to a second successive defeat in the 2025 Champions Trophy after they lost to Australia at the same venue.
Match 8, Afghanistan vs England
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Both results were characterised by similar deficits within the unit, and questions abound over the future of England's 50-over setup. They have won just four of their 16 ODIs since the last World Cup – a tournament in which they won just three of nine matches (against Bangladesh and then Netherlands and Pakistan).
It has been a steep fall from grace for a side which won the 2019 World Cup as well as the 2022 T20 World Cup. If they are not careful, more poor form could mean England do not qualify automatically for the 2027 World Cup.
How does qualification for the 2027 World Cup work?
As with most major tournaments, there are two routes to qualifying for the 2027 World Cup – automatically, or via a qualifying tournament. With the upcoming World Cup set to be a 14-team event, 10 sides will qualify automatically while the top four out of 10 teams from the CWC Qualifier will make up the rest.
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Automatic qualification works as follows – the two host nations for the tournament, South Africa and Zimbabwe, qualify along with the next top eight Full Member teams as per the ICC men's ODI rankings. The rankings will be taken as they are on March 31, 2027.
Why are England in danger of not securing automatic qualification?
As per the ODI team rankings today (February 27, 2025) England are ranked seventh in the world. Their rating of 89 is just a shade ahead of eighth-placed Afghanistan's (87). In fact, the gap to Sri Lanka (99) in sixth place is larger than the gap to Bangladesh (80) in ninth.
At present, South Africa are ranked No.5 and Zimbabwe No.11 in the world, meaning that apart from them the top nine teams in the rankings will qualify automatically for the 2027 World Cup.
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If England's poor form continues over the next two years until the rankings cut-off date, they could end up slipping to ninth or tenth in the rankings. If Zimbabwe remain outside the top 10 and South Africa remain inside it, England would miss out on automatic qualification if they slide to No.10 in the world.
Who could England end up facing in the qualifiers?
The supplementary tournaments for World Cup qualification are still in progress. But as the standings are today, USA, Oman, Canada and Scotland would be part of the CWC Qualifier.
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Joining them would be the top four from a tournament between the following teams: Netherlands, Namibia, Nepal, UAE, Jersey, PNG, Uganda and Italy.
As per the current ODI rankings, West Indies and Ireland would join these eight teams in the CWC Qualifier, as the two lowest-ranked Full Member nations.
Even if England were to slide far enough down the rankings, they would likely be favourites to top the Qualifier and play in the World Cup. But participating would itself be indicative of a sharp decline, as they have never had to go through this process before.
Ahead of the 2023 World Cup, two former world champions in Sri Lanka (1996) and West Indies (1975 & 1979) had to participate in the CWC Qualifier. Sri Lanka eventually made it to the World Cup but West Indies did not, as the Netherlands qualified instead.
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