Two defeats in two games have left Pakistan on the brink of a group-stage elimination from the 2025 Champions Trophy. However, they still have a chance.
Hosts and defending champions Pakistan began their 2025 Champions Trophy campaign with a 60-run defeat against New Zealand at Karachi. Their semi-final hopes were jolted further when they lost even their second match, against India at Dubai, by six wickets with 45 balls to spare.
India now have four points from two games (they had also beaten Bangladesh), while Pakistan are yet to get off the mark. This means that Pakistan are guaranteed to finish below India on the points table. To qualify, thus, their only hope is to finish above both Bangladesh (one match, zero points) and New Zealand (one match, two points).
Matches left in Group A of 2025 Champions Trophy
Bangladesh v New Zealand, Rawalpindi, February 24
Pakistan v Bangladesh, Rawalpindi, February 27
India v New Zealand, Dubai, March 2
Match 5, Pakistan vs India
vs
- Ball by ball Over
How can Pakistan qualify?
Since Pakistan can at most get two points, a basic requirement would be to keep both Bangladesh and New Zealand to two points each. Thus, they have to beat Bangladesh and expect New Zealand to lose both remaining matches.
That will result in India topping the group with six points and the other three tied on two each. Pakistan (net run rate -1.087) will now have to beat New Zealand (+1.200) and Bangladesh (-0.408) on net run rate.
Overtaking Bangladesh is the easier bit: if Pakistan’s net run rate rises, it will result in Bangladesh’s dipping. A 50-run win (say, Pakistan 300, Bangladesh 250) will take Pakistan to -0.372.
Before that, Pakistan will have to back Bangladesh to inflict some (but not too much) damage on New Zealand. If New Zealand make 300 and Bangladesh chase that down in 47 overs, the latter will get to -0.373, just behind Pakistan. Bangladesh scoring 317 and restricting New Zealand to 300 will do the same.
Unfortunately, even then, Pakistan will need India to win really big (by 95 runs or thereabouts) against New Zealand.
Of course, there are other combinations. A 104-run win against Bangladesh, for example, will take Pakistan’s net run rate to 0. In that case, New Zealand losing their two games by a combined margin of 61 runs will suffice for Pakistan.
If all of that happen, Pakistan can qualify – as the second side from Group A (since they are guaranteed to finish below India).
