Babar's ODI problem isn't intent alone, it's skill

Pakistan’s Champions Trophy defence on home soild ended up being little more than a whimper – after a limp run chase against New Zealand, they were comprehensively outclassed by India, and their final match was a damp squib against Bangladesh.

The sharpest focus has been on the side’s senior players. In the batting department, unsurprisingly, much of that critical eye is on Babar Azam, who wascalled a player with “no intention to improve,”by Shoaib Akhtar after the New Zealand game. The batter’s scoring rate has been under the scanner for some time now, and discussions have only intensified once his volume of runs have dropped as well.

Babar’s form over the last two years is a far cry from the batter who was at one point pushing Virat Kohli for the title of No.1 ODI batter in the world. So what has gone wrong?

Where has Babar Azam's drop-off been most extreme?

Until 2022, Babar scored 4,664 ODI runs, averaging 59.8 at a strike rate of 89.7. Since 2023, his 1442 runs have come at an average of 45.1, and strike rate of 82.5. In these last two years, only Rassie van der Dussen, Ibrahim Zadran and Max O’Dowd have scored slower while making over 1000 runs.

His method of batting has always been quite sedate, though – not a consistently prolific boundary hitter, the one constant since he came on the scene in 2015 has been his ability to keep the scoreboard ticking with ones and twos.

Read more: Who are the four uncapped players in Pakistan's ODI and T20I squads to face New Zealand?

This can be a dangerous game in any limited-overs format, but less so in 50-over cricket than 20-over cricket. The importance of wicket preservation increases as the length of the match does, meaning batters who play primarily in this fashion still provide some sort of value as an anchor, a player who can keep at least their wicket intact while ensuring the scoring rate does not dip dramatically.

A large part of what makes the anchor valuable to a batting lineup is their bankability. Teams can more or less be secure in the knowledge that this batter will keep their wicket intact at one end, and keep the scoreboard moving. But the problem is this: what happens when that skill begins to fade?

A rough measure of ‘strike rotation’ is a batter’s non-boundary strike rate – how quickly they score by running between the wickets. The following chart shows the progression of Babar Azam’s non-boundary strike rate over his ODI career.

Note: The split of overs 1-10 and 11-50 is to separate the middle overs from field restrictions in the first 10 overs, which aid boundary-hitting and hinder strike rotation.

At his peak, unsurprisingly, Babar combined the two aspects of ODI batting to near-perfection – he was able to hit a boundary every eight balls or so, and scored at a strike rate of 65-70 otherwise.

It’s only natural that both of these measures have dropped from what was the best phase of his career, with the boundary-hitting returning to roughly career-average.

Also read: Steve Smith announces immediate retirement from ODIs after Champions Trophy exit

But in the middle overs, where strike-rotating opportunities are at a maximum thanks to at least four fielders being outside the inner ring, his returns have dropped massively – to historically low levels for him.

Since 2023, from overs 11-50, Babar has a non-boundary strike rate of 54.7, and hits a boundary once every 12.1 balls on average. Only four players in the following chart rank lower on both measures; Keacy Carty, Janith Liyanage, Hashmatullah Shahidi and Mehidy Hasan Miraz.

Liyanage and Mehidy are bowling all-rounders, Carty plays for a West Indies side that did not qualify for the 2023 World Cup, and Shahidi is undroppable for Afghanistan at the moment by virtue of being their captain.

There are other players in this time frame who rotate strike more slowly than Babar does, but make up for it by being significantly better at finding the boundary – Rohit Sharma, Harry Brook and Mitchell Marsh have non-boundary strike rates of around or below 50, but hit fours or sixes almost twice as often as Babar.

Babar against pace: Lack of skill, or intent?

If, for example, Babar had sacrificed his ability to rotate strike in favour of hitting more boundaries, this would not be a problem. The issue is that he continues to be a subpar boundary-hitter, but now with a reduced ability to rotate strike.

What Pakistan used to have, was a batter who could keep the scoreboard ticking. What they now have is a batter who gets stuck more often than not. Part of the answer to his issues comes from examining where Babar has scored his runs pre- and post-2023.

Across his most-faced line and length combinations against pace bowling, Babar’s range of scoring areas have narrowed – more in the straighter direction.

This is most visible in the full deliveries he faces, both outside off and on the stumps. When the line is on the stumps, Babar scored 55 per cent of runs in the square leg and midwicket regions, pre-2023. That has since reduced to 38 per cent, coupled with an increase in scoring more through mid-on.

Similarly, pre-2023 Babar worked full deliveries outside off-stump towards midwicket and mid-on 38 per cent of the time. That has reduced to 14 per cent, as he scores more through the covers. When the ball is just back of a length outside off stump, he scores 30 per cent through square leg and midwicket, compared to 44 per cent pre-2023.

Now, a change in the distribution of run-scoring areas doesn’t mean much on its own. But it might point towards a change of attitude. Since 2023, Babar has begun to score more where the delivery (by extension, the bowler) allows him to. This means he is most likely not picking the gaps in the field as much.

It’s a traditional approach that is acceptable in Test cricket, where batters can afford to work only with what the bowler gives them, and waiting for a poor delivery to cash in. But in limited-overs cricket, the ability to take on the field, manipulating it to perhaps force desirable changes, is vital – and slowly becoming non-negotiable.

Babar against spin: Unable to break free

Against spin, the overriding tendency of Babar's play since 2023 has been to score more heavily square of the wicket on the leg side, from deliveries pitching within the line of the stumps.

This may not be intentional. Rather, it could be because he’s not been able to score freely through the off side anymore. Against these deliveries on a full length, he used to score 33 per cent of runs through mid-off and covers. That has been a measly 6 per cent since 2023. Against deliveries short of a good length, he used to score 17 per cent of runs through covers and point, which is now down to 7 per cent.

These trends point to two main issues underlining his dramatic drop in scoring rate.

Against pace, he appears more willing to take only what the bowler gives him (or, is unable to otherwise). Meanwhile, against spin, he has effectively been unable to access one half of the field when he has the option of playing the ball on either side of the wicket. Why these issues have crept in, though, is something only Babar is likely to figure out.

The bottom line is – a player whose limited-overs game revolves around their ability to rotate strike and manipulate the field is useful as long as they can do so day in, day out. Once that starts to fade, their utility can drop rapidly, and it becomes difficult to make a case for their inclusion.

Babar is more or less at this stage. It’s not a point of no return, especially for a player who is still 30 years old. But Pakistan need to realise (and this has been the case for a good while) that he can no longer be called indispensable.

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