In Group B of the 2025 Champions Trophy, Australia and South Africa are a point ahead of Afghanistan. However, even if they lose their last game, they may still qualify for the top four.
South Africa (against Afghanistan) and Australia (against England) got off to their 2025 Champions Trophy campaigns with emphatic wins. The match between the two sides was washed out, taking both of them to three points. Afghanistan then won the fourth game to reach two points and knock England out of the tournament.
Champions Trophy 2025 Group B points table after Afghanistan v England
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | NR | Points | NRR |
| South Africa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2.140 |
| Australia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +0.475 |
| Afghanistan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -0.990 |
| England | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -0.305 |
Champions Trophy 2025 Group B matches left
February 28: Australia v Afghanistan, Karachi
March 1: England v South Africa, Karachi
What do Australia and South Africa need?
A win will help either of the two sides past Afghanistan’s reach and guarantee them a semi-final berth. In fact, some other options more or less guarantee semi-finalists as well.
| Winner Feb 28 | Winner Mar 1 | Qualification |
| Australia | South Africa | Australia (5), South Africa (5) |
| Australia | England | Australia (5), South Africa (5) |
| Afghanistan | South Africa | South Africa (5), Afghanistan (4) |
| Afghanistan | England | Afghanistan (4) |
| Australia | no result | Australia (5), South Africa (4) |
| Afghanistan | no result | Afghanistan (4), South Africa (4) |
| no result | South Africa | South Africa (5), Australia (4) |
| no result | England | Australia (4) |
| no result | no result | Australia (4), South Africa (4) |
In other words, there are exactly two ways where net run rate will get involved. In both cases, England have to beat South Africa. In the first, Afghanistan have to beat Australia. In the second, Australia-Afghanistan will be a no result.
Afghanistan beating Australia, England beating South Africa
This will leave Afghanistan on four points, and Australia and South Africa on three. However, South Africa do hold a substantial net run rate advantage here.
Let us assume that Australia lose by the minimum possible margin of one run. If Afghanistan make 325 (what they made against England) and Australia 324, the latter would end up with a net run rate of +0.191. South Africa will finish below that if England get 350 and South Africa 262 (or 325-237, or 300-212 – in other words, about an 88-run margin).
Australia-Afghanistan no result, England beating South Africa
Australia will now qualify with four points, while Afghanistan and South Africa will be tied on three. Afghanistan will now qualify only if England make 350 and South Africa 143 (or around a 207-run margin).
Summary
South Africa are almost certainly through even in a defeat unless (a) they lose by a truly colossal margin and (b) Australia also lose.
Australia, meanwhile, would be better off with a win. They still stand a chance if they lose, but South Africa play last, and would know exactly what they need.
