It’s Shaheen Shah Afridi who kicks off the death spiral. The Lahore Qalandars captain has promoted himself at the hinge point of a massive chase against table-toppers Multan Sultans. His team have lost five games from five to start the season, a title defence unworthy of the name. Usama Mir has received a pasting in his first over at the hands of Sikandar Raza, and the first of his second is smashed over the ropes by Shaheen as well. Then the left-armer is left swinging through thin air, his down-the-track hoick soundly beaten and the bails whipped off in a flash.

What follows is absurd, and yet entirely in keeping with Lahore Qalandars’ zombie march of a season. Mir takes three wickets in his next over and two more in the over after that, figures of 6-40 in four overs startling even in the all-or-nothing arena of T20 cricket. Lahore Qalandars have now lost six from six. Even given the Pakistan Super League’s unusually generous format, which eliminates just two of six teams in the group stage, their hopes of a hat-trick of titles are all but over. Four wins, the best Lahore Qalandars can manage from here, would not have been enough for a top-four spot in 2023.

Partly, this is just what happens in franchise competitions. Key players are injured or out of form for a vital window of a couple of weeks, and that’s your campaign scuppered. Rashid Khan, who claimed 33 wickets and conceded under 6.5 runs per over for Lahore Qalandars across those two title wins, was ruled out this year after undergoing back surgery earlier in the winter. Haris Rauf and Zaman Khan took 66 wickets between them across the last two seasons, but have been under-par this time around. Rauf took two wickets in four games before a dislocated shoulder ruled him out of the tournament. Zaman has taken six wickets, but leaked more than 10 runs an over thus far.

In the batting department, Fakhar Zaman has previously been their lynchpin, but has endured a poor half-dozen games. In 2022, he was world-class, with eight fifty-plus scores in 13 hits, including a century. Last year he didn’t quite touch those highs, but an average of 33 and a strike rate in excess of 160 still demonstrated his value. This time, he has a high score of 41 and has scored at barely above a run a ball. Rassie van der Dussen and opener-keeper Sahibzada Farhan have each excelled, but there haven’t been enough contributions from elsewhere. They are the only two Lahore Qalandars batters to pass fifty thus far. In 2023, they had seven such players, while in 2022, they had six.

Lahore Qalandars have also had to contend with a lop-sided, jam-packed schedule which has seen them play six of the first 14 games of the competition across just 11 days. Islamabad United, somehow, have played half as many games thus far. Losing, like winning, is a habit, and without time to regroup, Lahore Qalandars have been unable to shake off the malaise. “The matches come so quick and fast and when the momentum is against you it just feels like too tough to get it back,” Rassie van der Dussen said after defeat to Peshawar Zalmi on Sunday. Two days later Lahore Qalandars were back out, and back losing, again.

SHOWSTOPPER SHAHEEN AFRIDI 🦅💫

Incredible catch to get rid of Malik 🙌#HBLPSL9 | #KhulKeKhel | #LQvKK pic.twitter.com/F6F3NziDpo

— PakistanSuperLeague (@thePSLt20) February 24, 2024

In amongst all this, Shaheen has maintained his usual levels. He has nine wickets, the most for Lahore Qalandars, at an average of 22 and an economy rate a little above eight runs per over. And yet it is he who could stand to lose the most from Lahore Qalandars’ winless streak.

He has not been blameless, as a member of the team management. Rashid, up there with the best T20 players of all time, is as close to irreplaceable as it gets on the franchise circuit, but Lahore Qalandars opted not to try, with no overseas specialist bowler on their roster. This has had the knock-on effect of squeezing highly rated youngster Abdullah Shafique out of the XI. Last season, then aged 23, Shafique struck at 144 as he finished second on the Lahore Qalandars run charts. This season, he was first pushed down to No.4 to accommodate Van der Dussen, and then left out altogether, Lahore Qalandars shuffling the middle order by the game in an attempt to fit in some combination of Sikandar Raza, Carlos Brathwaite, Shai Hope and George Linde.

Shaheen’s handling of himself has also been curious. He has finished his spell in the 18th over on four out of six occasions, leaving it to others to close out the game. Lahore Qalandars have been involved in multiple tight finishes, most notably losing off the last ball to Karachi Kings. He might argue that those games wouldn’t have been close had he not used himself earlier, but it has at times felt as if they could have benefitted from using their best bowler at the toughest points. In general, that captaincy Midas touch that stood out in Lahore Qalandars’ previous two seasons has been amiss. Take his promotion against Multan Sultans: last year, when Shaheen morphed into a genuine bowling all-rounder, there is every chance that would have proven a masterstroke. This time, it started a total collapse.

But these are minor quibbles. Really, it’s the timing of Lahore Qalandars’ poor run that could hurt Shaheen more than his role in it. Shaheen was appointed Pakistan’s T20I captain after Babar Azam’s all-format axing following a World Cup group-stage exit, and his total stint in charge consists of one five-match series in New Zealand. Even though Pakistan lost it 4-1, ordinarily that would be far too soon to be considering a change. But these are not ordinary times in Pakistan cricket. In the four months since Shaheen was appointed, basically everyone involved in that decision has resigned or been sacked by the Pakistan Cricket Board, with team director Mohammad Hafeez the latest to go. Hafeez’s replacement is yet to be named, but whoever they choose, it’s not impossible they take a fresh view on who is best placed to lead Pakistan in a T20 World Cup year.

Shaheen’s side’s slump has also coincided with a surge for Multan Sultans, top of the PSL table with five wins from six. Captain Mohammad Rizwan has had a solid campaign with the bat, with two half-centuries thus far, but in the field he has been electric. Highlights compilations of him cajoling and encouraging his charges have gone viral. Esteemed pundits have rated him as “the best captain in Pakistan”. Ian Bishop has described his leadership as “spectacular”. Rizwan is assured of his place in Pakistan’s best XI, and is one of the few senior players yet to get a go on the captaincy merry-go-round.

Lahore Qalandars’ back-to-back titles under Shaheen deserve credit, and their dip is hard to pin on him. But in a febrile ecosystem, a poor run at the wrong time can spell doom. The chance of a PSL title defence might be gone, but Shaheen could do with some wins nonetheless.