New Zealand’s already slim World Test Championship hopes have been dealt a significant blow by defeat to England at Christchurch, but there are still realistic combinations of results that would see them qualify for the final.
After being beaten 2-0 in Sri Lanka, the Black Caps unexpectedly kept their World Test Championship hopes alive with a historic 3-0 whitewash of India. However, with South Africa and Australia in the hunt, as well as those two sides, making the final was still a tough ask. Their other results were a 2-0 defeat at home to Australia, a victory over South Africa by the same margin, and a 1-1 draw with Bangladesh.
Had New Zealand beaten England 3-0, it wouldn’t quite have guaranteed a spot in the final, putting them on 64.3 PCT (points won per points contested). That would have put them out of reach of Sri Lanka and one of Australia or India, who are currently playing each other, but not South Africa. So a final between South Africa and one of Australia or India would still have been possible, but New Zealand would have been in a strong position.
Also read: Updated World Test Championship standings after England's win over New Zealand in Christchurch
A convincing win for England.
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) December 1, 2024
It's the fifth time in a row under Stokes and McCullum that they have won the first Test of an overseas tour.#NZvENG pic.twitter.com/EMf0VQ0EdP
Can New Zealand still qualify?
Now, if they come back to beat England 2-1, the highest PCT New Zealand can reach is 57.14. Overtaking that mark is within reach for all of the other teams in the race, and could see the Black Caps end up fourth.
To surpass 57.14 PCT, India need two wins from their last four Tests, Australia need four wins from six, South Africa need two wins from three, and Sri Lanka need three wins from three. So New Zealand need three of those four things to not happen.
It’s unlikely, but not totally out of the realms of possibility. For example, the following scenario would see New Zealand face South Africa or Australia in the final:
SA beat SL 2-0
Aus beat Ind 3-2
SL beat Aus 2-0
Or, if South Africa beat Sri Lanka in the second Test but lose a Test against Pakistan, then the only combination of other results which would see New Zealand miss the final is India beating Australia 3-2 and Australia beating Sri Lanka 2-0, in which case India and Australia would meet in a repeat of the 2023 final.
Also read: WTC final scenarios: How Sri Lanka can still qualify despite Durban thrashing
Do New Zealand have any more room for error?
New Zealand are down, but not quite yet out. But they can’t afford another slip up against England. That would leave them able to achieve a maximum of 50 PCT. One of India or Australia is guaranteed to surpass that mark, and while it is possible to come up with scenarios that see no one else exceed 50 PCT, these are so convoluted it is almost not worth putting down in writing. Though if you did want one such example:
SA beat SL 1-0 (drawing the second Test)
Pakistan whitewash South Africa but don’t whitewash West Indies
Australia beat India 4-1 but don’t beat Sri Lanka
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